Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Wisconsin, and the road map to victory for both parties

Thursday brought with it a veritable poll-a-palooza of November trial heats, with NBC/Marist dropping a six-pack of new polls at the presidential and Senate levels, and acting as a counterweight to all the breathless coverage of yesterday's Quinnipiac poll (I don't know that I've seen a single state poll get so much coverage this early in a campaign).

Today, however, let's focus on Wisconsin, whose recall election is coming up in less than two weeks. Two new polls come out of the Badger State today. On the surface, they are decidedly more pessimistic for the Democrats than a couple of other polls (the GQR poll and the St. Norbert College/WPRI) released earlier in the week. That said, there are still data points within that point to the possibility of this race tightening between now and June 5th.

But, first, as always, the numbers. And there are quite a lot of them to consume today:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (45-44)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (46-42)

CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama d. Romney (50-39)

MASSACHUSETTS (Suffolk University): Obama d. Romney (59-34)

NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for the right-leaning Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama d. Romney (48-42)

VIRGINIA (NBC News/Marist): Obama d. Romney (48-44)

WISCONSIN (Reason-Rupe): Obama d. Romney and Gary Johnson (46-36-6)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

CA-PROP 29-TOBACCO TAX (PPIC): Favor 53, Oppose 42

FL-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 46, Connie Mack (R) 42

FL-SEN (Quinnipiac): Connie Mack (R) 42, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 41; Nelson 43, George LeMieux (R) 36

FL-SEN--R (Quinnipiac): Connie Mack 40, Mike McCalister 8, George LeMieux 7

HI-SEN (PPP for the League of Conservation Voters): Mazie Hirono (D) 50, Linda Lingle (R) 41

MD-MARRIAGE EQUALITY LAW (PPP): Favor 57, Oppose 37

MA-SEN (Suffolk University): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 48, Elizabeth Warren (D) 47

OH-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 37

PA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 41

TX-SEN--R (PPP): David Dewhurst 46, Ted Cruz 29, Tom Leppert 15, Craig James 3

VA-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Tim Kaine (D) 49, George Allen (R) 43

WI-GOV (Garin-Hart-Yang for Barrett): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 48

WI-GOV (Reason-Rupe): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 42

WI-GOV (We Ask America): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 54, Tom Barrett (D) 42

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...