Thursday, May 31, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: All eyes (back) on Wisconsin

T-minus six days, and two polls showed two very disparate portraits about the state of play in the Badger State, as the eyes of the political world are focused on the state of Wisconsin.

While it was eminently predictable that Wisconsin Democrats would blast the new Marquette Law School poll spotting GOP Gov. Scott Walker with a seven-point lead, they did make one argument that I think does carry some weight.

There's plenty of other data, too, as you can see below:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)

NATIONAL (YouGov/The Economist): Obama d. Romney (46-43)

MISSOURI (PPP): Obama d. Romney (45-44)

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (51-43)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-PROP 29 (LA Times/USC): Favor 62, Oppose 33

FL-07--R (Conquest Communications for Mica): John Mica 55, Sandy Adams 25

IL-17 (Public Opinion Strategies for Schilling): Rep. Bobby Schilling 51, Cheri Bustos (D) 35

MI-SEN (PPP): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 37; Stabenow 53, Clark Durant (R) 31

MI-SEN--R (PPP): Pete Hoekstra 42, Clark Durant 11, Gary Glenn 4, Randy Hekman 4, Peter Konetchy 0

NY-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 56, Robert Turner (R) 26; Gillibrand 57, George Maragos (R) 24; Gillibrand 58, Wendy Long (R) 24

OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 42

WA-GOV (Strategies 360): Rob McKenna (R) 43, Jay Inslee (D) 39

WI-GOV (Lake Research for Greater Wisconsin): Tom Barrett (D) 49, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 49

WI-GOV (Marquette Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 52, Tom Barrett (D) 45

WI-LT GOV (Marquette Law School): Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) 46, Mahlon Mitchell (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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