Thursday, August 16, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Two new polls confirm NH-Gov race is a tossup

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here. Leading Off:

' NH-Gov: University of New Hampshire (PDF) for WMUR. 8/1-12. Likely voters. MoE: ±4.2% (4/9-20 results):

Hassan-Lamontagne: 31-33 (34-29)
Hassan-Smith: 31-29 (29-24)

Cilley-Lamontagne: 31-35 (31-30)
Cilley-Smith: 31-28 (30-23)

Kennedy-Smith: 27-29
Kennedy-Lamontagne: 29-35

Public Policy Polling. 8/9-12. Likely voters. MoE: ±3.0%, ±4.9 for Democratic primary, ±3.8 for Republican primary (5/10-13 results):
Hassan-Lamontagne: 45-43 (39-40)
Hassan-Smith: 42-39 (37-31)

Cilley-Lamontagne: 42-42 (38-38)
Cilley-Smith: 39-38 (37-32)

(D) primary:
Hassan-Cilley: 30-24 (23-20)

(R) primary:
Lamontagne-Smith: 49-21 (53-13)

We have two new polls of the New Hampshire governor's race, and even though UNH has far more undecideds than PPP, the two firms see the contest as a tossup pretty much no matter who gets nominated. On the Republican side, that's almost certain to be attorney Ovide Lamontagne; even though conservative activist Kevin Smith has made up a little ground, the primary is only a month away. The Democratic contest, though, is much more up for grabs, according to PPP. Thanks to being the first to hit the airwaves, ex-state Sen. Maggie Hassan has pulled out to a small lead over fellow former Sen. Jackie Cilley, but almost half of all voters have yet to make up their minds. Cilley's trailed in fundraising, but once she gets on the air, too, I'd say this could be anybody's game.

P.S. Hassan is out with her third ad, a positive spot in which the narrator touts various legislative accomplishments, like creating job retraining programs and helping to "end discrimination against sick workers."


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