Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Arizona primary and Oklahoma runoff preview

Voters in Alaska, Arizona and Vermont go to the polls to select candidates in primaries today, and Oklahoma voters do the same in their state's runoffs. We've written up all the key races below, and we've also provided an interactive, zoomable Google Maps version of Arizona's new congressional map:

Interactive map of Arizona's new congressional districts ' AZ-Sen (R): For a while there, it looked like free-spending businessman Wil Cardon might have a chance to upset Rep. Jeff Flake, who wound up as the establishment choice despite some serious idiosyncracies. But with a month to go in the race, presumably the polls weren't showing him closing fast enough, because Cardon went dark on TV. An aggressive, expensive ad war was the only way Cardon was going to have a shot, so by withdrawing from the battlefield early, you have to figure he has no hope.

' AZ-02 (D): Right after Ron Barber won the June special election to replace his former boss, ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords, state Rep. Matt Heinz said he planned to continue with his primary challenge, declaring: "I don't think people are going to consider Ron a real incumbent." He seems to have been wrong. In the pre-primary period, Barber raised $288K to just $42K for Heinz. More importantly, an unanswered Barber poll gave him a monster 77-13 lead. The winner will face former Air Force combat pilot Martha McSally in November.

' AZ-04 (R): Freshman Rep. Paul Gosar chose to seek reelection in the redrawn 4th District, which wound up without an incumbent, rather than the swingier 1st, but it just may be the death of him. Though it's safely red, Gosar's largely unknown to the district, and he managed to draw the ire of the Club for Growth, which is backing his main rival, state Sen. Ron Gould. (A third prominent candidate, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeau, withdrew after a former lover alleged Babeau threatened him with deportation.) The CfG spent almost $600K (mostly on TV) attacking Gosar, while only the American Dental Association has come to his aid, shelling out around $130K on mail and some radio ads. (Why the ADA? Gosar is a dentist.) Gould's fundraising has sucked, though, raised little more than a quarter of the million Gosar's taken in. There hasn't been any recent polling, so it looks like anybody's game.

Head below the fold for the rest of our writeups.


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