Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: To bounce, or not to bounce?

Tuesday marked the "real" kickoff of the Republican National Convention, and with it, we will start to hear endless and breathless speculation about the extent to which the three-day event will aid the political fortunes of one Willard Mitt Romney and one Paul Ryan.

Yes, Wrap readers, I am talking about "the Bounce." Is it real? Will there be one this time around? Those questions will get my attention, but not until after the jump.

But, first, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CBS News): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-46)

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters): Obama d. Romney (46-42 LV; 45-39 RV)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (50-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (52-45)

IOWA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

CT-SEN (Quinnipiac): Linda McMahon (R) 49, Chris Murphy (D) 46

CT-05 (Global Strategy Group for DCCC): Elizabeth Esty (D) 44, Andrew Roraback (R) 35

NV-SEN (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47, Shelley Berkley (D) 45

NC-08 (OnMessage for the Hudson campaign): Richard Hudson (R) 38, Rep. Larry Kissell (D) 37

RI-01--D (Fleming and Associates): Rep. David Cicilline 43, Anthony Gemma 31

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...