Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Contradictory evidence on the bounciness of the GOP convention

What do we know about the impact of the now-underway GOP convention on the mood of the electorate and the political fortunes of one Willard Mitt Romney?

Answer: Not a whole hell of a lot.

Several polls were released. One moved markedly in the GOP's direction, signaling the potential for a legitimate "bounce" from the convention. Another moved incrementally in favor of the president, signaling the potential for a 1992-esque "negative bounce."

Others? The needle has barely moved, which, all in all, seems about right to me, given the abortive start of the convention and the fact that the bulk of the polling, even now, is from samples weighted heavily to before the gathering even convened.

That said, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Democracy Corps--D): Obama d. Romney (49-47)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

NATIONAL (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama tied with Romney (43-43)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney d. Obama (47-46)

CONNECTICUT (PPP for League of Conservation Voters): Obama d. Romney (53-40)

ILLINOIS (Ipsos for Crain Business): Obama d. Romney (55-29)

NEVADA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-47)

NEW JERSEY (Rutgers/Eagleton): Obama d. Romney (51-37)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

CA-07 (Garin-Hart-Yang for House Majority PAC, et al): Ami Bera (D) 47, Rep. Dan Lungren (R) 47

CT-SEN (PPP for League of Conservation Voters): Chris Murphy (D) 48, Linda McMahon (R) 44

MO-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for the Family Research Council--R): Todd Akin (R) 45, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 42

NY-11 (Global Strategy Group for the Murphy campaign): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) 48, Mark Murphy (D) 36

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...