Sunday, May 20, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest: The state/national divide persists in battle for the White House

For the first time in recent history, Mitt Romney actually held the advantage in the majority of national polls released this week, besting the Democratic incumbent in five of the nine national polls dropped this week.

President Obama, however, still looks comfortable on a state-by-state analysis, though perhaps incrementally less comfortable than he did two weeks ago. Just the same, the HuffPo/Pollster electoral map of the presidential race still gives Barack Obama the edge in states totaling 284 electoral votes, more than enough for re-election. For his part, Mitt Romney has locked down just 170 electoral votes in the same analysis.

This odd dichotomy, more than any other statistic, has been the hallmark of the month of May in the horse-race political world. If one solely focuses on national polls, an Obama re-elect looks like no better than a 50/50 prospect. But, when analyzing the lay of the land on a state-by-state basis, Republicans would have a hard time feeling confident about their prospects.

Downballot, meanwhile, we have some growing discontent in Wisconsin, where some intrasquad squabbling marked a week where Republicans were close to growing complacent over their prospects in next month's recalls. In the Senate, another establishment frontrunner failed to make it past primary day. And, in the House, the Granite State could be headed for its third election out of four where it completely flips the script from a partisan standpoint.

All that (and more!) in the "only two weeks to sign up for Netroots Nation 2012" edition of the Weekend Digest.


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