Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Tuesday brings mixed signals all over the polling map

Some conventional wisdom got sorely tested today, in the relatively smallish sampling of polls released on this primary Tuesday (if you are voting in Nebraska, Idaho, and Oregon).

President Obama is in trouble!

(Unless you count New Hampshire, where a new poll has him outpacing his 2008 margins. Or even the House of Ras, where has made up 6 points in three days)

President Obama is doing just fine!

(Unless you count Wisconsin, where PPP has the state at just a one-point margin)

A Republican can't win in the House in Massachusetts!

(Unless you buy a new poll by a Republican challenger, one that has him leading a veteran Democratic House incumbent)

The gubernatorial race in North Carolina is a lost cause!

(Except PPP has the Democrat halving the Republican lead, in the wake of a competitive primary).

Let's get to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (48-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Obama d. Romney (53-41)

WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MA-06 (Global Strategy Group for Tierney): Rep. John Tierney (D) 46, Richard Tisei (R) 31

MA-06 (McLaughlin and Associates for Tisei): Richard Tisei (R) 40, Rep. John Tierney (D) 33

(2014) MT-SEN--D (PPP): Brian Schweitzer 48, Sen. Max Baucus 37

NE-SEN--R (PPP): Deb Fischer 37, Jon Bruning 33, Don Stenberg 17,  Pat Flynn 2, Sharyn Elander 1, Spencer Zimmerman 1

NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 46, Walter Dalton (D) 40

WI-GOV (PPP for Daily Kos): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 45, Hari Trivedi (I) 2

WI-LT GOV (PPP for Daily Kos): Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) 46, Mahlon Mitchell (D) 43

WI-SEN (PPP for Daily Kos): Tommy Thompson (R) 47, Tammy Baldwin (D) 42; Mark Neumann (R) 46, Baldwin 42; Eric Hovde (R) 45, Baldwin 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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