Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: The national/state divide persists in the race for the White House

Today's data underscores a couple of key themes that have been in place for weeks now in the 2012 election cycle: (a) a sharp disparity between the daily tracking polls and other presidential polling; and (b) a disparity between the national presidential polling numbers and polls emanating from key battleground states.

That, and a couple of new polls in coin-flip Senate races, highlight tonight's edition of the Wrap (as more important numbers, quite frankly, are getting crunched in Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Wisconsin).

Here are those numbers, including a real eye opener in the Heartland:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (49-44)

NATIONAL 3-WAY TABULATION (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama and Ron Paul (44-39-13)

NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (49-42)

IOWA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-41)

OHIO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-43)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MA-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 45, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45

NE-SEN--R (Singularis Group for Fischer): Jon Bruning 30, Deb Fischer 26, Don Stenberg 18

VA-SEN (Washington Post): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 46

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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