Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: New Texas poll muddles question of who is a 'likely voter'

If one looks at the latest poll out of Texas, among registered voters the outcome is in line with what previous pollsters have found during this cycle: a lead for Mitt Romney that is quite a bit less than the margins enjoyed by John McCain in 2008 (7-8 points).

However, if a "likely voter" screen is added, the results get dramatically different. What makes these polls intriguing (and, some would argue, suspect) is how it became different. The Texas poll (done by the University of Texas for the Texas Tribune) rockets Romney out to a 20-point advantage. In other words, there is a double-digit gap between what the poll found among "registered" voters and what they found among "likely voters."

Based on previous Texas polling this cycle, and 2008 electoral performance, the "likely voter" poll seems infinitely less plausible than the survey of registered voters. Which raises again the debate of what constitutes a likely voter.

But, first, here are the numbers to kick off the week:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-44)

OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Romney d. Obama (62-27)

TENNESSEE (Vanderbilt University): Romney d. Obama (47-40)

TEXAS (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Romney d. Obama (46-38)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

TX-SEN (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Republican Candidate 45, Democratic Candidate 34

TX-SEN--D (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Paul Sadler 35, Addie Dainell Allen 22, Sean Hubbard 22, Grady Yarbrough 12

TX-SEN--R (Burnt Orange Report): David Dewhurst 43, Ted Cruz 30, Tom Leppert 14, Craig James 5, Lela Pittenger 4, Others 3

TX-SEN--R (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): David Dewhurst 40, Ted Cruz 28, Tom Leppert 15, Craig James 5, Others 5, Lela Pittenger 3

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...