Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: On debate eve, polls show Romney hurting in swing states (again)

If I were a trite television talking head, I would begin the Tuesday edition of the Wrap with the statement that, if today's smattering of polls prove anything, it is that Mitt Romney "needs a game changer" in tomorrow night's opening debate.

While Republicans will cling to NBC/WSJ's "tightening" poll (and I will explain after the jump why that "tightening" meme is paper-thin), the balance of the polling looks pretty middling, at best, for the GOP contender. Worse still for Romney, the national polls look positively boffo compared to the state polls, which today are pretty much a universal disappointment for the Republicans (Texas would seem to be the only poll that they could stick on the refrigerator).

The GOP can point with some happiness downballot, but even there we can see a lot of potential disappointments for the red team coming in five weeks.

More on all of that after the jump. For now, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama 50, Romney 44

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 41 (LV); RV not available at press time

NATIONAL (NBC/Wall St Journal): Obama 49, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV) Obama 48, Romney 43, Others 5 (LV w/Full Candidate Slate); Obama 48, Romney 41, Others 6 (RV w/Full Candidate Slate)

NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama 49, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47

NATIONAL (United Technologies/National Journal): Obama 47, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 44 (RV)

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FLORIDA (Suffolk University, with leaners): Obama 48, Romney 45, Others 3

LOUISIANA (Southern Media and Opinion Research): Romney 45, Obama 39

MISSOURI (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 45, Others 2

NEVADA (We Ask America--R): Obama 53, Romney 42, Others 2

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP for the PCCC): Obama 51, Romney 44

NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 40

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 47

RHODE ISLAND (Fleming and Associates): Obama 57, Romney 33

TEXAS (Texas Lyceum Poll): Romney 58, Obama 39

VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Obama 47, Romney 39, Others 5

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

FL-SEN (Suffolk University): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 40, Connie Mack IV (R) 34, Others 5

ME-SEN (GS Strategy for the NRSC--R): Angus King (I) 37, Charlie Summers (R) 34, Cynthia Dill (D) 17

MO-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 46, Todd Akin (R) 45

NV-SEN (We Ask America--R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 45

OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 41

RI-SEN (Fleming and Associates): Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 56, Barry Hinckley (R) 30

TX-SEN (Texas Lyceum Poll): Ted Cruz (R) 50, Paul Sadler (D) 24

VA-SEN (Roanoke College): Tim Kaine (D) 47, George Allen (R) 37

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NH-GOV (Univ.of New Hampshire): Maggie Hassan (D) 38, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 36

NC-GOV (SurveyUSA): Pat McCrory (R) 51, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 3

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 48, Rob McKenna (R) 42

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RI-02 (Fleming and Associates): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 53, Michael Riley (R) 29, Abel Collins (I) 9

UT-04 (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love (R) 49, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) 43

WI-08 (Normington Petts for the Wall campaign): Rep. Reid Ribble (R) 47, Jamie Wall (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...