Monday, October 29, 2012

Today in early voting: FL, IA, NV, NC and PA

Pastor Eddie Walker, of the In Gods Time Tabernacle, waits in line with parishioners from several area churches as they take part in early voting in Orlando, Florida October 28, 2012.  Errol Thompson, a Baptist pastor in Orlando's black community, acknowledges that the excitement over Barack Obama becoming the first black U.S. president has cooled. But with the Democratic president locked in a tight race against Republican challenger Mitt Romney, Thompson still expects voter turnout in Florida for the November 6 election to be equal to or greater than it was four years ago. To make sure of that, he and other black church leaders across Florida are organizing a mass effort, dubbed Voters cast ballots Sunday in Orlando. I hope they voted for Obama. Actually, it's yesterday in early voting. Information on the latest numbers from Iowa, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are all below the fold!

Short of it'our people are turning out. But Republicans are turning out in bigger numbers, relative to 2008. That's because they actually have a GOTV operation this year, unlike John McCain. That doesn't mean they're winning. It means that the Democratic advantage in the early vote is smaller this year than it was in 2008.

But here's the thing'Republican voters are reliable voters, whiter, older, better off. That's why we have those big gaps between registered and likely voters in the polling.

Thus, an early vote for us is a vote that might not have been there on Election Day. The same can't be said of the GOP. Their vote will be cast whether early or late, come hell or high water.

I fully expect the polling to tighten over the next week as pollsters tally "already voted" respondents that they might've filtered out with their likely voter screens. And as we've seen consistently, President Barack Obama has dominant leads with those early voters.

Anyway, let's look at some of the key state data, below the fold.


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