Short of it'our people are turning out. But Republicans are turning out in bigger numbers, relative to 2008. That's because they actually have a GOTV operation this year, unlike John McCain. That doesn't mean they're winning. It means that the Democratic advantage in the early vote is smaller this year than it was in 2008.
But here's the thing'Republican voters are reliable voters, whiter, older, better off. That's why we have those big gaps between registered and likely voters in the polling.
Thus, an early vote for us is a vote that might not have been there on Election Day. The same can't be said of the GOP. Their vote will be cast whether early or late, come hell or high water.
I fully expect the polling to tighten over the next week as pollsters tally "already voted" respondents that they might've filtered out with their likely voter screens. And as we've seen consistently, President Barack Obama has dominant leads with those early voters.
Anyway, let's look at some of the key state data, below the fold.
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