Orange to Blue roundup, 10/28/2012

Here's your daily Orange to Blue race news.
 

Speaker Pelosi Project:

CA-07: We're on the verge of knocking out one of the GOP's worst: Rep. Dan Lungren. CREDO had PPP poll a number of races over the last few days, including this one. Dr. Ami Bera is all tied up with Lungren, 46-46. Lungren is underwater on both his reelect and favorability numbers, with 49 percent of respondents saying they're ready for someone else to hold the seat. That could very well happen. Help Ami Bera get there.

FL-18: PPP polls for CREDO: Murphy 48, West 47. They polled a couple of weeks ago for FLDemocracy/WPTV/TCPalm, and found West leading, 51-42. That's a pretty big switch, perhaps reflected in the favorable/unfavorable numbers for West. Two weeks ago, it was 49/41. This week it's 45/49. This one, like too many, is going down to the wire, but it's at least a good swing in Murphy's favor. Help Patrick Murphy close out this race.

FL-26: Crooked Rep. David Rivera is getting no help from the strawman candidate he created to try to defeat Joe Garcia in the Democratic primary.
 

[Justin Lamar] Sternad, a Democrat who witnesses say was secretly backed by Republican Rep. David Rivera, filed 17-blank pages for his final campaign report and then sent a letter to the Federal Elections Commission that said he could say no more.

"Please accept this letter as an amendment to my previously filed October 15 Quarterly Report (Q3)," Sternad wrote Oct. 19 in a just-posted letter to the FEC.
"On counsel's advice, I invoke my rights under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution of the United States not to answer or submit the information requested on FEC Form 3, on the grounds that I may incriminate myself.

That pretty much confirms that Sternad, and his puppetmaster Rivera, are indeed under federal investigation for the fake campaign scheme.

It'll also help Joe Garcia close out this race. Just for additional insurance, you can toss a few bucks to Garcia here.

MN-08: More polling we like from PPP for CREDO. Rick Nolan up over tea party freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack, 48-44. Fifty-one percent of respondents don't want to return Cravaack to Congress, so this one is encouraging. Help Nolan put this one away.

NH-01: Rounding out the PPP polls for CREDO, Carol Shea-Porter is in a dead heat with Rep. Frank Guina, trailing by one point at 47-48. This is another too-close-to-call. It's all going to come down to GOTV and what Shea-Porter can bring in the final week. You can help her, here.

Upgrade the Senate:

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon's "Democrats like me, they really like me" ad has done her more harm than good. The lastest fallout is from the Journal Inquirer editorial board, which calls it "disingenuous, desperate, and dishonest."

While it is certainly honorable to vote for the person and not the party, it is also true that McMahon has been consistently attacking the president ' rather mindlessly using all the far-right's talking points: repeal Obamacare; cut taxes for the rich so their wealth will trickle down to we, the peasants; and be more bellicose in foreign policy.

Click here to help Chris Murphy bring this one home.

HI-Sen: This one is pretty much all over but for the counting. It would be a miracle, or mean a substantial chunk of Hawaii's population which has been polled over the last several weeks are pathological liars, for Republican Linda Lingle to overcome Mazie Hirono's 22-point lead. Seems unlikely.

OH-Sen: You want this one to not be in single digits because the Republican is freaking idiot Josh Mandel, a walking train wreck. So here's your poll. PPP has Brown opening up a solid lead, 53-42 (almost out of single digits!). Let's keep Sherrod Brown in the Senate.

WI-Sen: It's Rasmussen, but it's all we've got for this one today: Thompson ahead of Baldwin 48-47. The polling averages, including Ras, show it tied. We'll know in an week, but in the meantime, let's help Tammy Baldwin finish strong.

Daily Kos for Marriage Equality:

Maryland: Polling has tightened up on this one significantly, according to OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun. Right now it's basically all tied up, 47 opposed, 46 for.