Alas, said "likely voter" screen does exist, so instead, the headlines (as they have been for most of this cycle) will warn of a coin flip race, with the president staked to a mere 49-47 lead over the Republican challenger. Even worse, it is inevitable that some in the chattering classes will talk of a "bounce" for Romney since the last poll, which showed Obama up 52-45.
Such talk of movement in Mitt's direction is analytical malpractice, of course, because the previous CNN/OR poll did not have said likely voter screen. In the only apples-to-apples comparison we have here (RV to RV), it is the president whose standing has incrementally improved.
With all this in mind, I close this week of the Wrap (after the fold, of course), with what will be a rerun for long-time readers: a mini-rant about how I am perhaps the only person in the polling analysis game who feels that likely voter screens tend to suck.
But, first, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-43 among RV; 49-47 among LV)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)
CALIFORNIA (Tulchin Research and M4 Strategies for USC School of Education): Obama d. Romney (56-33)
COLORADO (Keating/OnSight--D): Obama d. Romney (48-44)
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Obama tied with Romney (47-47)
CA-PROP 30 (Tulchin Research and M4 Strategies for USC School of Education): Yes 55, No 36A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...CA-PROP 38 (Tulchin Research and M4 Strategies for USC School of Education): Yes 40, No 48
NM-SEN (GBA Strategies for the Heinrich Campaign): Martin Heinrich (D) 51, Heather Wilson (R) 44
PA-SEN (Muhlenberg College/Morning Call): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 30
VA-SEN (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 45, George Allen (R) 45
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