Thursday, April 19, 2012

House Democrats announce first ad blitz of the cycle

What pops out in this chart?

Chart of DCCC ad buy, all in battleground states Every single one of these markets is in a battleground state, or reaches into one: Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska's in-play Omaha districts (Barack Obama won that electoral vote in 2008), Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. The only "battleground" states not represented are Michigan and New Mexico, but neither will be much of a battle this year (and the DCCC will contest seats in both those states). Obama is crushing in the polling.

It can't be a coincidence that the DCCC's first major block of reserved ad time is happening in the big presidential states.

There are clear electoral advantages in targeting districts that will feature heavy presidential get-out-the-vote efforts. But still, the DCCC's efforts will obviously be much broader than those on this list. So why reserve this ad time in these specific states right now?

The answer may not be tactical, but logistical. These states will be over-saturated with presidential spending. By reserving ad time now, the DCCC guarantees it doesn't have to compete with the presidential campaigns for air time, while also locking in the lowest rates.


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