Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Romney bounce still MIA as Democrats prepare to begin in Charlotte

For nearly a week now, I have said, repeatedly, that gloating over the absence of a polling "bounce" for the Romney-Ryan ticket from their Republican National Convention was premature, because too much of the polling sample was still culled prior to the major addresses and events of said convention.

Well, as we sit here on Labor Day evening, that is no longer the case. Even the seven-day polling sample conducted by the folks at Gallup has reached the point where roughly three-quarters of the respondents were queried after the convention began. Plus, the kind folks at Gallup have dropped some hints about the day-to-day characteristics of their numbers. Furthermore, they polled people over the weekend on what they thought of the Romney convention, and they gave it uncharacteristically low marks.

And the verdict? This may be among the weakest convention bounces of the modern era, and far from what RNC Chair Reince Priebus was anticipating when he flatly declared before the gathering in Tampa that the bounce would be real and visible.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-44)

COLORADO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

FLORIDA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (48-47)

NORTH CAROLINA (Elon University for the Charlotte Observer): Romney d. Obama (47-43)

NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama tied with Romney (48-48)

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA/High Point University): Romney d. Obama (46-43)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NC-GOV (Elon University for the Charlotte Observer): Pat McCrory (R) 52, Walter Dalton (D) 37

NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 45, Walter Dalton (D) 39, Barbara Howe (L) 5

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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