Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Big early voting lead for Obama, but tied overall

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/25-28. Likely voters. MoE ±2.7% (10/18-21 results)

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Obama 49 (48)
Romney 49 (48)

Even looking at the day to days, the race is stable. It's essentially tied in the swing states'50-49 Romney, Obama wins Blue states 55-42, while Romney wins Red states 57-40. Romney's bigger margin could theoretically lead him to win the popular vote while losing the electoral college vote. I wouldn't count on that to happen, however.

Of those who watched the last presidential debate, Obama won 49-39 (44-36 among independents), which gives Team Blue an objective 3-1 in the debates. Too bad the first one was so outsized in influence.

Of particular importance given the difficulty in getting base Democrats to the polls, Obama is winning 59-41 among those who have already voted (14 percent of sample), 54-42 among those who plan to vote early (18%), and 53-44 among those who plan to vote absentee (7%). Romney is winning those who expect to vote on Election Day 53-44 (62%).

It's almost as if there are two elections'the one before Election Day, and the one during.