William Galston talks 2012 election with Daily Kos

Daryl Cagle via politicalcartoons.com

William Galston is a noted scholar (formerly the Saul Stern Professor and Dean at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland) and experienced political hand (Bill Clinton's Deputy Assistant for Domestic Policy in the '90s) who is currently the Ezra K. Zilkha Chair in Governance Studies and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

This past week, Dr. Galston released a white paper, titled "Six Months to Go: Where the Presidential Contest Stands as the General Election Begins." It caught my attention since that's a topic of great interest to us, and I was pleased to see some familiar themes (see Things that matter in the presidential election, and things that don't) covered in the paper.

Six topics in particular were the focus:

' An examination of polling results and public attitudes toward both candidates and important issues of the day.

It remains to be seen whether the negative perceptions of Romney that resulted from the nominating contest will endure. For the time being, at least, Obama enjoys a sizeable advantage on a host of personal qualities. He has a narrow edge in most of the key swing states. And his path to 270 electoral votes is easier than Romney's. In short, he begins the general election contest with a modest advantage, which adverse developments at home or abroad could eliminate or even reverse. The 2012 election will be hotly contested, and the victor's margin is unlikely to approach Obama's seven-point edge in 2008.

' The mood of the country

Reflecting diminished confidence in government and public life, younger Americans are more likely to view the American dream as resulting from personal achievement. They are also less likely to give priority to ensuring opportunity for all members of society. Because they cannot rely on government for financial security, they experience increased pressure to provide for themselves and their families. But they are not confident that they will be able to do so if current trends continue.

' The issues

Every survey finds that economic issues dominate public concerns. The most recent survey of the Pew Research Center asked respondents to rank eighteen issues on a four-point scale from 'very' to 'not at all' important. Eighty-six percent said that the economy was very important, with jobs a close second at 84 percent. By contrast, four hot-button social issues'immigration (42 percent), abortion (39 percent), birth control (34 percent), and gay marriage (28 percent)'came in at the bottom.

' Ideology

The election of 2012 takes place against the backdrop of a political system that is more polarized along partisan and ideological lines than it has been for many decades'indeed, if standard political science measures are correct, since the 1890s. This fact has already reshaped the campaigns of both the president and his challenger.

' What kind of election will 2012 be?

It appears that 2012 will be more like 2004'a classic mobilization election'than either 1992 or 1996. Like George W. Bush, Barack Obama has turned out to be a polarizing president who has induced many voters to choose sides very early in the process. So the enthusiasm of core supporters'their motivation to translate their preferences into actual votes'will make a big difference.

' The Electoral College

The focus of this paper thus far has been on the national electorate. But of course we do not have national elections. As the 2000 election painfully reminded us, the structural difference between the national popular vote and state-by-state results can sometimes be consequential.

But it is important to keep 2000 in perspective. The Electoral College comes into play only when the popular vote is narrowly divided. If a candidate wins the popular vote by as little as 2 percent, it is very unlikely that the loser can win a majority of the electoral votes.

Dr. Galston was kind enough to respond to further questions we had about November 2012.

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