The states to watch on Election Night 2012: Six months to go

Pennsylvania: From 1st place to 4th Place
Who is the new #1?!

For regular readers of these descents into electoral junkie-dom on Sunday Kos, they will note that this is the third installment in a series to determine, somewhat subjectively, what states will be the ones to grab the lion's share of the attention come November. It all started in the summer of 2011, here on Sunday Kos, when I attempted to quantify the level of interest we could expect in the 2012 elections for each state. The top three states were largely where you would expect: Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. But Montana cracked the top 10, as well.

Clearly a lot was going to change as time went on. The redistricting process would play itself out, Senate and gubernatorial elections would have been firmed up, and the race for the White House started to create a more coherent electoral map. Thus, the top 10 states for round #2 of this exercise varied by quite a bit. Montana ceded its spot in the top 10, and California shot up into the top three on the strength of a dozen competitive House races.

So, now, with the clock now tricking down within six months of Election Day, it is time again to revisit the top 10, which has again changed quite substantially.

Before we head through the top 10, however, let's reset the criteria, which has changed a bit courtesy of (yay!) the inclusion of our own race ratings in the downballot races (ratings you can find here):

1. THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
As always happens, we can expect Barack Obama's re-election to consume the lion's share of the oxygen in this campaign cycle. So, it is weighted the heaviest. Each state's competitiveness was measured by race ratings offered by Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg (since we have not yet constructed our own presidential race ratings here at Daily Kos Elections). Eight points are awarded for a toss-up, four points for a state described as leaning to one party or the other, two points for a state described as likely to be one party or the other, and one point for a state described as a safe win. The average rating will then be multiplied by a factor related to the state's electoral votes. States with 3-9 electoral votes are multiplied by one, states with 10-19 electoral votes are multiplied by two, and so on.

2. THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
With Senate control potentially at a knife's edge, the upper chamber in Congress will deservedly get a lot of attention. Thus, our own race ratings here at Daily Kos Elections were used to determine how close each Senate race should be followed. Once again, if a race is defined as a toss-up, it will be worth eight points. If a race is defined as "leaning" to a party (even if it is not the incumbent party), it will be worth four points. A race defined as "likely" to go to a certain party gets two points. A "safe" seats gets a single point. Thus, if a state has a "Leans Democratic" Senate race, its rating for the Senate would add up to four points.

3. THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
Count me among those who think House control could also be very easily at a knife's edge. Because it is possible for one state to have multiple races in the mix, the point values here will dissipate a bit: four points for a toss-up, two points for a leaner, and one point for a "likely" rating. The cumulative total for all of a state's races will be factored in, meaning one state could generate well over four points (indeed, the national leader, California, tallied 33 points in the House alone).

4. THE RACE FOR THE STATEHOUSE
For now, this will mean just the gubernatorial races ... For the sake of simplicity, let's offer up the same point values as the Senate races.

With the criteria set, head beneath the fold to find out who makes the top 10. There are two entries in the top 10, and one of them makes its debut, as it happens, in the top five.