NBC-Marist: President Obama leads Florida, Ohio, and Virginia

The most frightening smile in America ... if you're a Republican (Larry Downing/Reuters) NBC-Marist. 5/17-20. Florida, Ohio, Virginia RVs. ±3.0%. (3/12 for OH, VA; 1/12 for FL)

Florida:
Obama: 48 (49)
Romney: 44 (41)

Ohio:
Obama: 48 (50)
Romney: 42 (38)

Virginia:
Obama: 48 (52)
Romney: 44 (35)

Mitt Romney has clearly gained some ground in each of the three states, which is to be expected; each of the previous polls were taken in the middle of the Republican primary. Between the fact that Romney was being attacked by fellow Republicans and that his unlikable, gaffetacular self was on television every night, it's not a surprise that his numbers were horrible. Now they are just merely weak.

In each state, President Obama edges Romney on who would be more effective dealing with social issues (abortion, contraception, and same-sex marriage) and foreign policy. Obama also leads on the economy, though very narrowly. In each state, voters by a wide margin saw Obama as more in touch than Romney with their problems.  The only issue area where Romney had an advantage was handling the national debt, which is ironic given how he leveraged (and bankrupted) companies with debt while at Bain Capital.

The best thing Mitt Romney has got going for him is that most voters in each state think things are on the wrong track:

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?

Florida:
Right direction: 39
Wrong track: 57

Ohio:
Right direction: 41
Wrong track: 55

Virginia:
Right direction: 38
Wrong track: 58

Ordinarily, you'd think that numbers like that would be terrible for an incumbent. The thing that makes this election unusual is that President Obama inherited such a huge mess, and voters don't blame him for it.

Do you think the current economic conditions are mostly something President Obama inherited or are they mostly a result of his own policies?

Florida:
Inherited: 56
Obama policies: 37

Ohio:
Inherited: 57
Obama policies: 35

Virginia:
Inherited: 57
Obama policies: 36

Obviously, Mitt Romney hopes to be able to run a campaign completely focused on President Obama and the fact that the right track/wrong track numbers are so bad. Maybe in an ordinary year that would be an effective strategy, but not in 2012. Voters aren't happy with where the country is, but they haven't forgotten how we got to where we are, and Mitt Romney's failure'or refusal'to credibly define his candidacy as something other than a return to the status quo before Barack Obama is an enormous liability.