Electoral college snapshot: Barack Obama 303, Mitt Romney 226

Here is the latest swing state picture, using the TPM poll tracker polling composites. These numbers include those of overtly Republican Rasmussen, giving us a sort of worst-case scenario. The right-most column is the change from last week. Red shading means the trend is in Romney's favor, while blue shading means it's in Obama's favor. Those with no change haven't been polled in the last two week.

Seldom-polled Colorado went from a double-digit Obama lead to a tied game thanks to a single poll by Purple Strategies, the lobbying outfit of Bush-Cheney media guy Alex Castellanos and a couple of asshole Democrats. Am I willing to discount it a la Rasmussen? Not yet, as their other recent polling appears more in line with the polling consensus.

Florida flipped to Romney by a sliver, which is what all recent polling shows in the state'either Obama up 1-2, or Romney up 1-2. It's a classic neck-and-neck battle. Missouri has shifted redder not because of any new polling, but because old polling has aged off the composite.

Iowa hadn't been polled in a while, so PPP's recent poll accounts for the big Obama surge, flipping the state from Romney Red to Obama Blue. Ohio continues to tighten, but Pennsylvania is going the other direction. And polling continues to show Obama consistently over 50 percent in Virginia.

I just noticed something'Obama pretty much does best in the states with the lowest number of undecideds. I won't hazard a guess about what that means, or even if it's a statistically meaningful observation. But it's something I'll keep an eye on moving forward.

So compared to the last time we looked at the map on May 2nd, Florida now flips Red while Iowa flips Blue. That's a +23 EV net gain for Romney. I'm also subtracting Colorado's nine EVs from Obama's column. The result:

If you add up just the states Obama leads in by more than five points, that still gives Obama 272 electoral votes. In other words, he remains in pretty good shape.