Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: What's the trend? It's a tougher question than you think.

If you believe the House of Ras, over the last week the presidential election has moved clearly in the direction of Barack Obama, as a once-formidable Mitt Romney lead has evaporated. Fox News echoes that movement in the president's direction, though the gap there was three weeks, instead of one.

If you believe YouGov (at least, when your Wrap curator gets the numbers right ... more on that later), Mitt Romney has surged in the past week, and has a modest advantage.

And if you believe Gallup, TIPP or PPP, the election has barely moved at all.

Wow, glad we could clear that up for you.

On to the numbers!

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (TIPP for Investor's Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (43-40)

NATIONAL (Zogby Analytics for the Washington Times): Romney d. Obama (44-43); Obama d. Romney and Gary Johnson (44-43-2)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

NE-SEN (Rasmussen): Deb Fischer (R) 56, Bob Kerrey (D) 38

NH-01 (PPP): Carol Shea-Porter (D) 47, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 43

NH-02 (PPP): Ann McLane Kuster (D) 42, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 42

NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (R) 41

ND-SEN (Essman Research/Forum Communications): Rick Berg (R) 51, Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44; Heitkamp 48, Duane Sand (R) 45

ND-SEN--R (Essman Research/Forum Communications): Rick Berg 65, Duane Sand 21

SC-07--R (Francis Marion University): Andre Bauer 22, Tom Rice 21, Chad Prosser 8, Jay Jordan 5, Katherine Jenerette 4, Dick Withington 2, Renee Culler 1, Jim Mader 1, Randal Wallace 1

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...