Bob Kerrey Pedestrian Bridge (ApollyonMD/CC BY-SA 3.0) Three states are holding primaries today: Idaho, Nebraska and Oregon. Here's a look at the key races in each of them, in order of poll closing times: ' NE-Sen (R): Out of nowhere, it seems, the Nebraska GOP Senate primary became a competitive race at the very last possible moment. State AG Jon Bruning had been the front-runner from day one, though right-wing meddlers like Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund and the Club for Growth did their best to boost Treasurer Don Stenberg. A few polls a while back suggested Stenberg might be gaining on Bruning, but he never came close to sealing the deal and it looked like Bruning would cruise to the nomination.
Then, a very strange thing happened with barely two weeks left to go: The race's third wheel, state Sen. Deb Fischer, started picking up steam, judging by a final spate of polls. Fischer's fundraising had been extremely weak, and she was also caught between two poles: the establishment, which was backing Bruning, and the tea party types, who had rallied around Stenberg. But after a long campaign season of Stenberg and Bruning bashing each other over the head, Fischer had the chance to sneak through, in a move reminiscent of Creigh Deeds' unexpected surge in the 2009 Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia.
Indeed, that's the very analogy PPP's Tom Jensen also relies on in characterizing this race; PPP conducted a last-minute poll which confirms Fischer's rise, finding her at 37 with Bruning close behind at 33 and Stenberg off the radar at 17. While this out-of-nowhere race could still go either way, Fischer has all the momentum and appears to be on the verge of a major upset.
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