Catholics and the economy doom Obama, except they don't

Michael Gerson, laying down some CW, yo:

I've previously argued that the Obama administration, motivated by instinctual liberalism, stumbled into this conflict [over birth control] with Catholic leaders. It is possible, however, Obama is making the political calculation that appealing to younger, non-religious voters is worth the alienation of traditional Catholics. Yet even if this strategy makes sense nationally, it might not be wise in, say, Pennsylvania or Ohio, where the votes of white Catholics could matter greatly.

What evidence does Gerson have for this? Nothing based on reality, that's for sure:
Yup, that's the polling trendlines in Pennsylvania, where President Barack Obama has been increasing his lead since the whole controversy exploded earlier this year. While closer, Ohio has followed a similar path, with Obama's lead increasing since the controversy first emerged.

I know conservatives dearly hope that Catholics ignore all the ways Republicans make a mockery of their faith (supporting unjust wars and the death penalty, cutting programs for the poor and opposing comprehensive immigration reform), and some of them have! Or maybe they have. Who knows? But regardless, whatever minute amount of support Obama may lose from Catholics (who support access to birth control overwhelmingly, remember!), he'll more than make up among newly energized women.

In Pennsylvania, women made up 54 percent of the vote, and opted for Obama 59-41, an 18-point margin. In PPP's latest Keystone State poll, they choose Obama by a 20-point 56-36 margin.

Meanwhile, the media, the GOP and Mitt Romney are all convinced that the economy will ultimately doom Obama. It's the reason why Republicans have spent the last three years doing everything to tamp down any recovery. Yet is that really a magic bullet?

No state has a crappier economy than Nevada.

The Silver State ... has the dubious distinction of leading the nation in unemployment, foreclosure filings and share of homes worth less than the mortgages on them.

If voters were inclined to blame Obama for the nation's economic woes, Nevada would be strong Romney territory. Heck, as a bonus, it's one of the most heavily Mormon states in the union! Yet, once again, reality:
The state isn't in play, with even a recent Rasmussen poll showing Obama safely over 50 percent. If Nevada can't be in play, then Republicans are going to have to depend on far more than the (improving) economy to make their case to voters.