Eric Hovde (R) surges in both primary and general in Wisconsin Senate race

Eric Hovde, Madison East HS yearbook photo, 1982 Public Policy Polling (pdf). 7/5-8. Wisconsin voters. MoE ±2.9% (4.1% for Republican primary sample). (4/13-15 results in parentheses, 2/23-26 in brackets):

Eric Hovde (R): 31 [--]
Tommy Thompson (R): 29 [39]
Mark Neumann (R): 15 [22]
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 9 [22]
Undecided: 16 [17]

Tammy Baldwin (D): 44
Eric Hovde (R): 45
Undecided: 11

Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (45) [46]
Tommy Thompson (R): 45 (47) [45]
Undecided: 11 (8) [9]

Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (46) [47]
Mark Neumann (R): 41 (45) [41]
Undecided: 13 (9) [12]

Tammy Baldwin (D): 46 (47) [47]
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 42 (40) [39]
Undecided: 11 (13) [14]

Something important has happened in the last few months in the Wisconsin Senate race ... and, no, it doesn't involve anything that Tammy Baldwin (the presumptive Democratic nominee) or Tommy Thompson (the state's former four-term Republican governor, generally expected to be her opponent) did, nor does it have anything to do with the gubernatorial recall election. What happened is: Washington, D.C.-based hedge fund manager and political novice Eric Hovde aired a crapload of TV ads, mostly paid for out of his own pocket. Having the airwaves mostly to himself for months on end has taken Hovde'who only a few months ago seemed to be the fourth wheel in the primary, just another rich guy running a quixotic vanity campaign'and turned him in to a legitimate threat in both the primary and the general, more than a little reminiscent of fellow rich outsider Ron Johnson's surge out of obscurity in the 2010 Wisconsin Senate race.

The more immediate question is the GOP primary, which is coming up on August 14. Until recently, it looked like Thompson was generating only lukewarm enthusiasm among the GOP base, and he could be in trouble if one more conservative opponent could consolidate the anti-Thompson vote. But, it looked like he was going to skate through anyway, thanks in large part to the fact that the very conservative vote was split down the middle by the principal candidates running to his right, ex-Rep. Mark Neumann and state House speaker Jeff Fitzgerald.

However, that was before Hovde was much of a factor (in fact, this is the first time PPP has polled him); thanks to millions in ad spending, he's cranked up his name rec and in fact has the best favorables in the GOP field. Hovde's at 50/9 among Republican voters, compared with 56/28 for Thompson and 43/21 for Neumann. Neumann and Fitzgerald have really faded, with Hovde drawing primarily from them but also a fair number of former Thompson voters. In fact, if it somehow became just a head-to-head between Thompson and Hovde, Hovde would be winning 46-39, pretty similar to the more generic question of whether Republicans want Thompson or 'someone more conservative,' where generic wingnut wins 50-34. Non-tea party Republicans split 31-31, but tea partiers give Hovde the edge, backing him 39-21.

Thompson had been polling slightly ahead of Baldwin in most polls of this race while Baldwin had a decent edge over the conservative also-rans (including in PPP's previous April poll, although that poll came with a huge caveat in that it was a poll of likely gubernatorial voters, a pool of voters that turned out to be slightly more Republican-leaning than the broader populace). So, you'd think that it would be good news for Baldwin that Thompson is deflating and Hovde is rocketing up.

However, Hovde's incessant ad blitz'in which he comes across as non-threatening, platitude-spouting outsider'seems to have gotten him into good position for the general, too. His favorables among the entire electorate are 31/27, leaving him the only candidate who's above water, better than Baldwin at 37/39 and much better than Thompson at 40/47. In fact, this is the first poll we've seen where Hovde performs as well as (in fact, one point better) Thompson against Baldwin. With either Hovde or Thompson as the nominee, PPP finds the November election a true tossup, one that'll come down to ground game and Barack Obama coattails. (It's worth a mention, though, that the overall sample was pretty GOP-leaning; the respondents broke 46-46 in 2008, quite different from the actual 56-42 win for Obama.)

In the context of this poll's findings, the new ad that debuted Monday from EMILY's List (under the name "Wisconsin Women Vote," on which they're spending at least $221,000) seems to make more sense, and it suggests that this poll isn't a fluke and maybe other camps' internal polling is seeing Hovde performing just as well as Thompson in the general. Their ad attacks both Thompson and Hovde, which seemed like an unusual (if not outright bad) choice at first; if Hovde was weaker, it would make more sense to hold fire against him until after the primary in the hopes of wounding Thompson and letting the weaker Hovde sneak through the primary. However, if Hovde and Thompson perform the same in November, it makes more sense to go after them simultaneously, which is exactly what they do here: