Senate votes on tax cut extensions today, but this time the outcome is not at all predictable

Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid, flanked by Sens. Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin Dueling tax plans come to the Senate floor today: A Democratic plan which would allow the Bush tax cuts for income over $250,000 to expire and a Republican plan that would extend them all. Republican Mitch McConnell announced just this morning that he'll agree to a simple majority vote on both bills, rather than block the Democrats' bill with a filibuster.

That's an attempt to avert a trap set by Majority Leader Harry Reid to force Republicans to filibuster the extension of middle class tax cuts, letting Democrats argue that the GOP was holding those cuts hostage in order to keep tax cuts for the wealthy, and maybe an attempt to set his own trap. There are a few Democrats who are opposed to one aspect of their party's bill: it drops a provision that would have set the estate tax rate at 45 percent for estates worth more than $3.5 million. Without action on the estate tax by the end of the year, it reverts to a 55 percent rate on estates worth $1 million and up. That makes some Democrats, like Mark Pryor (AR) uncomfortable. Pryor said he'd vote with his party on the procedural vote, though he doesn't like the estate tax plan. Now that it's a simple majority vote, rather than one with a 60 vote threshold, this puts pressure back on Reid should he decide to go for a simple majority vote. Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Jim Webb (D-VA) have already announced opposition, so Reid's margin is quite thin. (Lieberman says he'd vote against the Republican bill, too. Equal opportunity asshole, Joe is.)

The problem for Republicans, though, is that their plan eliminates three middle class tax cuts that were included in the stimulus bill.

The first is the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for low- and middle-income workers with qualifying children; the second is the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) that partially refunds college tuition, and the third is the expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) for families raising children. All three were passed in the 2009 stimulus package and extended in December 2010 with bipartisan support.

That could make quite a difference to lots of American families. The White House released a report yesterday that shows how many families and how much of a difference: "114 million families would see average tax increases of $1,600 next year." This is apparently new news to the Republicans. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) says he's "going to find out why that is not included" but that it's not enough of a reason to scuttle the GOP bill.

As of now, the only vote scheduled is a procedural motion to proceed to the Democratic bill, at 2:15 ET. Which means that, as of now, Reid isn't taking McConnell up on his offer for two simple majority votes.