Friday, July 20, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: If Romney can't win battlegrounds in GOP polls, can he win at all?

Thursday brought a fairly sizeable number of state polls, and the balance of them look pretty decent for the president's chances for reelection.

That is especially true, of course, when you factor in the fact that three of the state polls released this time around give Barack Obama modest leads in battleground states, despite the fact that they were conducted by Republican polling firms.

The news is not all good (that Q poll out of Virginia is a bit of a buzzkill), but on balance, I'd rather be the president than Mitt Romney, based off of this data.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic for NPR): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-46)

NEVADA (Magellan Strategies for AFP): Obama d. Romney (50-46)

NEVADA (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (49-43)

OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Obama tied with Romney (44-44)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (46-37)

WISCONSIN (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (49-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NV-SEN (Magellan Strategies for AFP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 45, Shelley Berkley (D) 42

NH-GOV--D (Benenson Strategies for Cilley): Jackie Cilley 20, Maggie Hassan 20, Bill Kennedy 10

VA-SEN (Quinnipiac): George Allen (R) 46, Tim Kaine (D) 44

VA-SEN (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D) 46, George Allen (R) 45

WA-01 (PPP for Democracy for America): John Koster (R) 48, Darcy Burner (D) 17, Suzan DelBene (D) 13, Steve Hobbs (D) 5, Laura Ruderman (D) 4, Larry Ishmael (I) 1, Darshan Rauniyar (D) 1

WA-01 (Strategies 360): John Koster (R) 36, Darcy Burner (D) 12, Suzan DelBene (D) 11, Steve Hobbs (D) 7, Laura Ruderman (D) 3, Larry Ishmael (I) 2, Darshan Rauniyar (D) 1

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Rob McKenna (R) 42, Jay Inslee (D) 41

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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