Thursday, August 2, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: New swing state polls are good news for Democrats across the board

Most of the political oxygen today, at least on the polling front, has been sucked up by that trio of CBS/Quinnipiac polls in the swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. And, sure, three fresh polls showing Obama leading by 6-11 points in three absolutely pivotal states certainly qualifies as big news.

The equally big news, however, is that those same CBS/Q polls also had great news for Democrats eager to hang onto the U.S. Senate. Couple them with some pretty decent polling on the House level, as well, and it was a pretty darned good day to be a Democrat, at least on the horserace/data front.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney d. Obama (46-44)

CONNECTICUT (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-43)

FLORIDA (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (51-45)

OHIO (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (50-44)

PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (53-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-01 (North Star Opinion Research for Paton): Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 46, Jonathan Paton (R) 43

AZ-02 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Barber): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 53, Martha McSally (R) 40

AZ-02'D (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Barber): Ron Barber 77, Martha McSally 13

CA-09 (Lake Research Partners for McNerney): Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 49, Ricky Gill (R) 33

FL-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 40

FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Connie Mack IV (R) 43; Nelson 45, Mike McCallister (R) 40; Nelson 46, Dave Weldon (R) 39

FL-SEN'R (PPP): Connie Mack IV 47, Dave Weldon 14, Mike McCallister 10, "Someone Else" 6

MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43; Stabenow 51, Clark Durant (R) 43

MI-SEN'R (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Pete Hoekstra 40, Clark Durant 24, "Another Candidate" 15

MO-SEN (Rasmussen): John Brunner (R) 49, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 43; Sarah Steelman (R) 49, McCaskill 43; Todd Akin (R) 47, McCaskill 44

MO-SEN'R (Internal poll, as reported by Dave Catanese): John Brunner 29, Todd Akin 27, Sarah Steelman 25

OH-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 39

OH-16 (GBA Strategies for Sutton): Rep. Betty Sutton (D) 42, Rep. Jim Renacci (R) 40, Jeffrey Blevins (Lib) 12

PA-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 55, Tom Smith (R) 37

WI-SEN'R (PPP): Eric Hovde 28, Mark Neumann 25, Tommy Thompson 25, Jeff Fitzgerald 13

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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