Republican leadership set to clash with its foot soldiers over marriage equality

Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republican establishment want to play it cool when it comes to marriage equality. They recognize this isn't 2004 when Team Bush practically made one-man, one-woman marriage into a mantra and supported a boat-load of state referendums to deny gay and lesbian couples the rights accorded everyone else. But as poll after poll shows, it's not just Barack Obama who has "evolved" on the subject in the eight years since that campaign.

It isn't that Romney or most of those leaders have themselves embraced marriage equality. They remain in step with the Republican rank and file which, according to the latest Gallup Poll, rejects marriage between partners of the same sex by a 4-1 margin. Twice as many Democrats and independents support marriage equality as oppose it.

But, while the GOP leadership may want to keep matters focused on the economy, where they believe Obama and the Democrats are vulnerable and in which they know most Americans, including Republicans, are more interested than another battle over social issues, the ultra-conservative, evangelical wing of the party has other ideas. This is a predicament for Romney, who spent much of the past eight months trying to persuade the social-conservative wing that he stands with them on issues they are greatly concerned with.

Here's heavy-hitter Al Cardenas of the American Conservative Union discussing how social conservatives are ready to support Romney because he is opposed to marriage equality:

'The question was to what degree of passion,' he said, noting that most conservatives always viewed marriage as a moral or religious question. 'But we never viewed it through a political lens before ... This puts it in a political context. And this is like the religious arguments of the '80s. You're going to have a revival of social conservatives like you haven't seen in 20 years in this race.'

Cardenas said this may not be what Republican leaders want, suggesting they would prefer to talk about jobs and the economy. But, he said, 'I believe social conservatives are going to consider this a need to rally support on.'

It's no surprise that Rick Santorum, who gave a tepid endorsement to Romney after losing his bid for the presidential nomination, says the candidate should show how he differs from Obama on the issue of marriage equality at every opportunity:

"This is a very potent weapon, if you will, for Governor Romney if he's willing to step up and take advantage of a president who is very much out of touch with the values of America," Santorum said in an eye-opening live interview with Arkansas TV station KARK, a CNN affiliate.

Ralph Reed, president of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, a right-wing social advocacy group, said:

'This is one situation where Obama looks like the flip-flopper and Romney looks consistent. So much for the notion that Romney's the one with no core.'

This is in direct conflict with a remarkable memo from Jan van Lohuizen, a Republican pollster for George W. Bush in 2004. As Andrew Sullivan points out, this is the Republican establishment talking bluntly to itself. What the memo says is that Republicans are themselves evolving across a broad range of issues relating to gay rights, and while the majority opposes marriage equality, only 29 percent oppose any kind of legal recognition for same-sex unions. Lohuizen says the party had better wise up because the tide is turning:

The increase in support is taking place among all partisan groups. While more Democrats support gay marriage than Republicans, support levels among Republicans are increasing over time. The same is true of age: younger people support same sex marriage more often than older people, but the trends show that all age groups are rethinking their position. [...]

'People who believe in equality under the law as a fundamental principle, as I do, will agree that this principle extends to gay and lesbian couples; gay and lesbian couples should not face discrimination and their relationship should be protected under the law. People who disagree on the fundamental nature of marriage can agree, at the same time, that gays and lesbians should receive essential rights and protections such as hospital visitation, adoption rights, and health and death benefits."

That isn't yet a call for the GOP to fully support marriage equality. But it's clearly paving the way for that to come next. And it's a far cry from the blather the party's social conservative wing has been spouting. How the Chamber of Commerce wing of the party will straddle the matter over the next six months will be interesting, indeed. The one thing they've got going for them is that the guy now at the top of their party is Mr. Straddle incarnate.