marriage equality would go away.
(Caricature by DonkeyHotey) In 2004, the Republicans, led by Team Bush, cranked up the hate machine and made the specter of marriage equality a big part of their reelection strategy. They backed state ballot initiatives to prohibit marriage being extended to same-sex couples. They talked trash about gays and lesbians. Eight years later, with President Obama having weighed in on the subject and more than two dozen states having passed one-man, one-woman marriage laws, it's a different story.
Two reasons for that. Republican strategists think Obama is vulnerable on the economy. They want to keep their campaign focused on that subject as much as possible because they know that people's concerns about jobs are trumping other matters, so they don't want any distractions. And then there's the evolving view of Republicans on marriage equality:
Behind the scenes, influential donors and top strategists are counseling Republican candidates to avoid hot rhetoric or stigmatizing gay people, fearing a potential backlash from voters, who, polling suggests, are fast growing more open to gay marriage. [...]'This really spotlights a fissure in the Republican Party between the southern evangelical wing of the party ' where they don't mind government intrusion into the bedroom and into individuals' private space ' and the limited-government side of the party,' [John McCain campaign strategist Steve] Schmidt said. 'Looking back at this from 50 years in the future, people who are on the wrong side of this issue aren't going to stand very well in history's light.'
The caution has a lot to do with attracting independent voters, of course. But, as a Washington Post/ABC poll recently showed, even though a majority of Republicans still oppose gay marriage, 39 percent now are in favor. Heavy-hitters like John Bolton and Dick Cheney, with unquestioned ultra-conservative credentials, favor gay marriage. More important, some big donors do.
After President Obama made his historic announcement Wednesday, Romney made clear he's still a one-man, one-woman believer. But the as-yet-uncrowned GOP nominee softened that by saying he thinks gay couples should have the right to adopt. The Romney straddle. Trying to have it both ways. As usual.
While the party establishment may do all it can to avoid more than tangential talk of same-sex marriage during the campaign, however, it won't be able to silence its social-conservative wing. The Faith and Freedom Coalition, led by Ralph Reed, said Thursday that it planned to include the president's comments in its campaign to rally conservatives. And the ultra-rightist Family Research Council issued a statement saying the president's open support "almost ensures that marriage will again be a major issue in the presidential election."
Whether the social conservatives can gin up enough outrage over the matter to make a difference seems iffy. For instance, in a half-dozen interviews in heartland Omaha Thursday, the New York Times found nobody raising an objection to Romney's downplaying of the issue. Mo Birkel, a 70-year-old retired custodian, seemed to epitomize the changing attitudes about marriage between individuals of the same sex: 'I can't say if I'm for it or against it, because I don't know what my grandkids will be.'
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