Friday, June 8, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: New presidential state polling presents mixed view of race

One theme that has marked this week thus far, and a theme most Democrats will find amenable, has been one in which Barack Obama has done marginally better in trial heats with Mitt Romney than he had done for most of the month of May.

Quite a bit of today's data (a new independent poll in Virginia, coupled with a GOP-sponsored poll in Wisconsin) buttresses that theme. But there was also a new poll out of Michigan (by local pollsters EPIC-MRA) that went in a dramatically different direction, while the Gallup tracker also headed in a red direction. And then, later in the day, Purple Strategies dropped their latest set of battleground polls which included an Ohio poll which recalls the old song "One of These Ones is Not Like the Others."

Ultimately, today was (yet again!) one of those days where either side could cherry-pick to their heart's content.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

NATIONAL (Monmouth): Obama d. Romney (46-42)

NATIONAL (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (48-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

COLORADO (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (48-46)

COLORADO (Rasmussen): Obama tied with Romney (45-45)

FLORIDA (Purple Strategies): Romney d. Obama (49-45)

MICHIGAN (EPIC-MRA): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (54-39)

OHIO (Purple Strategies): Romney d. Obama (48-45)

VIRGINIA (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (47-42)

WISCONSIN (We Ask America): Obama d. Romney (48-43)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 49, Connie Mack IV (R) 36; Nelson 48, George LeMieux (R) 35; Nelson 47, Mike McCallister (R) 33; Nelson 47, Dave Weldon (R) 31

FL-SEN'R (PPP): Connie Mack IV 34, George LeMieux 13, Mike McCallister 10, Dave Weldon 6

MI-SEN (EPIC-MRA): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 38

ND-SEN (Mason Dixon): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 47, Rick Berg (R) 46; Heitkamp 46, Duane Sand (R) 38

ND-SEN'R (Mason Dixon): Rick Berg 73, Duane Sand 16

PA-07 (GBA Strategies for Badey): Rep. Pat Meehan (R) 50, George Badey (D) 30

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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