Thursday, June 28, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Quinnipiac dominates the day with eye-popping Ohio poll

On another data-heavy day, the big headline came out of the state of Ohio, where Quinnipiac dropped their latest offering. In a state that is universally defined as a battleground, an Obama +9 poll raised eyebrows almost unanimously.

As has often been the case, I cite the maxim I have often cited on polls like this one: If you have one thing, and everyone else has something else, chances are that it isn't everyone else that has something wrong.

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (45-44)

ARIZONA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (54-41)

FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (45-41)

MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama d. Romney (55-39)

OHIO (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (47-38)

PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (45-39)

VIRGINIA (Old Dominion): Obama d. Romney (49-42)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 41, Connie Mack IV (R) 40

MI-03'D (G.Q.R. for Pestka): Steven Pestka 39, Trevor Thomas 15

NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 49, Walter Dalton (D) 35

OH-SEN (PPP): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 39

OH-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 50, Josh Mandel (R) 34

PA-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 49, Tom Smith (R) 32

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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