Thursday, June 28, 2012

Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: Sometimes, it's a dog's breakfast

Daily Kos-SEIU polling banner

Sometimes, you just have to admit it. I really didn't find a whole lot to like about our the polling data we got back from PPP this week. In addition to our usual array of questions about Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and so forth, we threw in a mix of topical questions, as we always do. The results: bleh.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 6/14-17. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (no trendlines):

Q: Who do you trust more on health care issues that are important to you and your family, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama: 44
Mitt Romney: 45
Both equally: 4
Not sure: 7

Gah, really? Well, fortunately, we did this one as a split sample, asking the above version to half of our respondents, and the below version to the other half:
Q: Who do you trust more on health care issues that are important to you and your family, Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans?

Barack Obama: 47
Congressional Republicans: 43
Both equally: 5
Not sure: 5

That's ... well, that's not really a whole lot better. I would love to meet those "both equally" folks, though. Actually, no, I wouldn't.
Q: In general, do you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney has more clear stances on the issues?

Barack Obama: 45
Mitt Romney: 42
Both equally: 6
Not sure: 7

Sigh. What happens, I think, on questions like these is that they become "partisan-ized," especially in our tightly divided electorate. Democrats know they're supposed to side with Obama, Republicans know they're supposed to side with Romney, and independents more or less split. (They actually preferred Romney over Obama on the health care question, but Obama over congressional Republicans.)
Q: Do you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney has a more clear stance specifically on the issue of immigration?

Barack Obama: 44
Mitt Romney: 38
Both equally: 9
Not sure: 9

I think you can really see that "partisan-izing" effect here. Mitt Romney has done everything possible to avoid taking a stance on immigration issues and yet he barely trails the president. This may also have something to do with the fact that Romney's immigration dodges haven't become a major campaign issue yet (though of course they've been discussed here a-plenty.) That may yet change.

So, one more, and the best example of partisanship rearing its head yet:

Q: Do you think the Supreme Court is too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

Too conservative: 31
Too liberal: 32
About right: 30
Not sure: 7

That's just kind of depressing. (And the splits in the crosstabs are exactly what you'd expect them to be.) We do plan to ask this question again this week, though, to see if the Supreme Court's ruling on the Affordable Care Act (aka the health care reform bill) changes perceptions.

So, we don't always like what our polling shows us. In fact, I'd say that's as often the case as it is not. But you can pay for only what you want to hear, or you can pay to hear the truth. And we will always, always opt for the latter. That's what being a member of the reality-based community means.

P.S. As always, our approval and favorability numbers can be found on our weekly trends page.


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