Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: A clear leader in the AZ-08 special election on Tuesday evening?

A relatively quiet opening to the week on the political polling front, but a big headline first thing in the morning kicks off our coverage this week.

Last week, in our elections panel at Netroots Nation in Providence, I noted that the dearth of polling being released by the campaigns in the special election to replace the retiring Gabby Giffords in AZ-08 led me to conclude that the race was a coin flip. PPP, this morning, hints that I may be wrong. Propelled by a mammoth lead with early/absentee voters, PPP has Democrat Ron Barber staked to a double-digit lead over Republican Jesse Kelly. But there is not an undisputed conclusion.

More on that later. First, the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)

NATIONAL (TIPP for Christian Science Monitor and Investors Business Daily): Obama d. Romney (46-42)

NORTH DAKOTA (Mason Dixon): Romney d. Obama (52-39)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

AZ-08 (PPP): Ron Barber (D) 53, Jesse Kelly (R) 41, Charlie Manolakis (G) 4

ND-AL (Mason Dixon): Kevin Cramer (R) 49, Pam Gulleson (D) 35, Eric Olsen (L) 4

ND-AL'R (Mason Dixon): Kevin Cramer 60, Brian Kalk 21

NY-SEN (Siena College): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63, Bob Turner (R) 25; Gillibrand 65, George Maragos (R) 23; Gillibrand 65, Wendy Long (R) 22

NY-SEN'R (Siena College): Bob Turner 16, Wendy Long 11, George Maragos 3

SD-MAYOR (SurveyUSA): Bob Filner (D) 46, Carl DeMaio (R) 43

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...