Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Tied race, advantage Obama

Above is the Ohio polling aggregate Switches between candidates on RAND panel (today has O 51 R 45). National polling is still tied.

Predictwise seven day summary of betting markets.

Nate Silver:

Thursday was a busy day for the polls, with some bright spots for each candidate. But it made clear that Barack Obama maintains a narrow lead in the polling averages in states that would get him to 270 electoral votes. Mr. Obama also remains roughly tied in the polls in two other states, Colorado and Virginia, that could serve as second lines of defense for him if he were to lose a state like Ohio.

Jonathan Bernstein:

All the chatter this afternoon is about a CNN poll showing Barack Obama with a four point lead in Ohio, which goes with two other Ohio polls today showing smaller leads for Obama. As always, my advice is to look at the polling averages, but they tell the same story: HuffPollster now has Obama up in Ohio by 2.5 percent, and has moved the state back from toss up to lean Obama. Perhaps the most important thing? That's one more day without any movement towards Mitt Romney.

Brendan Nyhan:

The notion that Romney still had 'momentum' weeks after his early October gains in the polls has now been debunked by numerous commentators and academics. And while that pushback is increasingly reflected in campaign-trail accounts, it is worth taking a closer look at why coverage of Romney's 'momentum' went wrong and what it tells us about the weaknesses of campaign journalism.

The problem? Too wedded to narrative, not invested enough in polling and data. Their defense is that they don't drive voters, they reflect what is happening in the election. I still think their main and only job is to report correctly what is going on. If the facts don't fit the story, change the story. If that means learning how to read polls, then learn.

Wanna bet? $10,000? MT @steveweinstein "Look, there are 11 different ways to win without Ohio," Rove said on Fox News
' @politicoroger via web

David Leonhardt:

The housing bust finally seems to be over. Health care costs have slowed. The unemployment rate has fallen below 8 percent, much sooner than forecasters were predicting a few months ago. Consumer confidence has reached a post-recession high.

There is still no guarantee that the economy is on a stable path to recovery, given its structural problems and the false starts of the last few years. But the odds that the recovery has finally begun have never been higher. Which is one more reason the presidential campaign, for all the groaning it has inspired from left, right and center, matters so much.

Gail Collins on how nutty the entire rape/abortion discussion has become:

But let's just talk today about his comment on abortion. Mourdock was basically saying that everything that happens is part of God's plan. Did that mean God's plan included evil things like sexual assault? Or just pregnancies as a result of sexual assault? Theologians have been arguing these kinds of questions for more than a thousand years. I don't think we can expect to work them out in the Indiana Senate debate.

However, Mourdock's words reminded everyone of Representative Todd Akin, the United States Senate candidate in Missouri. He defended his opposition to abortion under any circumstance by claiming that it was virtually impossible to become pregnant from a 'legitimate' rape. (Many Missourians were disturbed by the remark. Recently, Akin skillfully attempted to change the subject by comparing his opponent, Senator Claire McCaskill, to a dog.)

Kathleen Parker:

That Obama has had ample help from certain outspoken players (Missouri and Indiana Senate candidates Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, respectively, to name the most notorious) has only made Romney's challenges greater. But the war against women has always been a red herring.

You see, no one is trying to take away contraception, says Kathleen, and Akin and Mourdock are simply rogue candidates. along with many other Republicans running for office. But then again, providing it via ACA is Obama's fault by antagonizing the Catholic Church. Both propositions are false, but to conservatives, it's self-evident. Just a reminder of how important this election is at many levels.
The candidate we have leading in EVERY state today is the same one we had leading when we launched 538 forecast in June.
' @fivethirtyeight via web
@fivethirtyeight GAME CHANGE. Short vega!
' @felixsalmon via TweetDeck Charles Blow:

We have a very racially divided electorate. As The Washington Post reported Thursday, 'Obama has a deficit of 23 percentage points, trailing Republican Mitt Romney 60 percent to 37 percent among whites, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll.'

The report pointed out that nearly 80 percent of nonwhites support Obama, while 91 percent of Romney's supporters are white.

I worry that Sununu's statements intentionally go beyond recognizing racial disparities and seek to exploit them.

What does that say about Romney, and what does it say about his campaign's tactics?

Remember: A man is known by the company he keeps.

Added:
@ron_fournier has an important and disturbing piece on racial attitudes http://t.co/...
— @DemFromCT via TweetDeck