Tuesday, July 17, 2012

North Carolina runoff preview

North Carolina's primary was a long time ago'May 8'but voters are finally going to the polls to pick nominees in three congressional districts where runoffs were required. Our roundup of all three contests is below, but first, here's a map of the Tarheel State's new (and wondrously gerrymandered) congressional map to help you follow along:

Interactive map of North Carolina's new congressional districts ' NC-08 (R): This is a pretty classic contest between Beltway establishment Republicans and conservative purist meddlers. In one corner, you've got former congressional aide Richard Hudson, backed by the likes of Eric Cantor's YG Action Fund and Norm Coleman's American Action Network. In the other is former Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle, a favorite of the Club for Growth. (The American Dental Association has also thrown Keadle a bone, since he's a dentist.) Outside spending has been pretty evenly matched, around $837K for Hudson and $786K for Keadle.

Hudson's fundraising has also been better than Keadle's, though Keadle's loaned his own campaign over $337K, while Hudson has taken a quarter mil from PACs, which is a hefty sum for a non-incumbent. Hudson took 32 percent on primary night while Keadle scored 22 percent (sadly, uber-nutcase Vernon Robinson finished third). I'd bank on Keadle having the more enthusiastic supporters for a mid-summer, low-turnout primary. The winner will take on third-term Dem Rep. Larry Kissell in the fall.

' NC-09 (R): A gazillion-way field to replace retiring GOP Rep. Sue Myrick in this very red district got whittled down, naturally, to just two on primary night: ex-state Sen. Robert Pittenger (who earned 32 percent of the vote) and Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jim Pendergraph (25 percent). Unlike in NC-08, no third-party groups have really bothered here, probably because Pittenger, a wealthy real estate investor, has dumped $2 million of his own money into the race. The differences between the two seem to be more stylistic than ideological: Pendergraph has a reputation as more of a consensus-builder while Pittenger is a fire-breathing conservative who alienated fellow legislators during his brief tenure. For what it's worth, Myrick has endorsed Pendergraph (and Rep. Patrick McHenry is backing Pittenger). Whoever emerges victorious will face Democrat Jennifer Roberts, who is also a Mecklenburg County commissioner.

' NC-11 (R): Here we have a contest between Mark Meadows, another real estate investor, and Vance Patterson, a businessman who says he's started 16 companies. (A Borscht Belt jokester would ask: "But how many did he finish?") Both candidates have self-financed a good chunk'Meadows some $264K and Patterson about $311K. But that's it for Patterson: He's eschewed traditional fundraising while Meadows has pulled in another $200K from individuals. Meadows came very close to meeting North Carolina's 40 percent threshold for avoiding runoffs with 38 percent on primary night (Patterson was well back at 24 percent), so conventional wisdom would label him the front-runner. The victor will run against Hayden Rodgers, chief-of-staff to retiring Rep. Heath Shuler, whose seat Democrats are trying to defend.


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