Romney gains, Obama's Electoral College lead narrows

It's been a couple of weeks since we checked into the poll composites, and those weeks haven't been kind to President Barack Obama:

Ohio's big shift is due to two polls'one from Rasmussen, and the other from Purple Strategies (a consulting group run by right-wingers and Lieberdems)'showing Romney slightly ahead. On the other hand, a recent NBC/Marist poll had Obama up 48-42. Wisconsin has dropped that far because of a single Ras poll.

Some have asked why I continue to include Rasmussen in these numbers, since they have been demonstrably and objectively pro-Republican. For one, I like for us to have a worst-case look at the numbers, and Rasmussen helps accomplish that.

But in case you're curious, here's what the margins would look like without Rasmussen:

The states with no difference are states in which Rasmussen has not been active. In most other cases, Ras drags the numbers down a point or two. In Missouri, the only other non-Rasmussen poll is one by PPP that felt a tad optimistic. It would be nice to get some additional outside polling in that state. So the only state in which Rasmussen has moved the numbers significantly is Wisconsin, and that's mostly because his (ridiculous) Wisconsin poll is fresh and thus weighed more heavily than older polls rolling off the average.

I'll continue to include Rasmussen polls. If nothing else, they help guard against complacency. No matter what their individual polls show, there is enough additional polling that we still get a good feel for overall momentum.

And looking at the overall data, it's clear that the momentum has been in Romney's direction these past two weeks, regardless of what Rasmussen says.

Oh, and the Electoral College picture?

With Rasmussen: Obama 286, Romney 243
Without Rasmussen: Obama 305, Romney 227

Despite Obama's rough last couple of weeks, he's still ahead even in our worst-case scenario. But those margins aren't as gaudy as they were a few months ago. In fact, 286 EVs is getting a little close for comfort.