Bill Nelson still holds double-digit edge in Florida Senate race

The Sunshine State is looking blue ... for now

Public Policy Polling (PDF). 5/31-6/3. Florida voters. MoE ±3.9% (4/12-15 in parentheses):

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 49 (47)
Connie Mack IV (R): 36 (37)
Undecided: 15 (17)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (48)
George LeMieux (R): 35 (34)
Undecided: 17 (18)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (47)
Mike McCalister (R): 33 (35)
Undecided: 20 (19)

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (')
Dave Weldon (R): 31 (')
Undecided: 22 (')

On the heels of their presidential polling earlier in the week showing the president sitting on a four-point lead over Mitt Romney in the pivotal state of Florida, this morning PPP released their Senate numbers in the Sunshine State, as well.

The verdict? Continuing good news for Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, who continues to lap the field when paired with a variety of Republican contenders. He pulls out by an incrementally wider margin than he enjoyed in April, and also posts a 16-point lead over former Rep. Dave Weldon, who made a late bid into the race when Florida Republicans grew steadily concerned that frontrunner Connie Mack IV was not quite the candidate they hoped he would be.

Weldon's status as a player, at least at this early date in his campaign, might have been overblown. He loses in the general election trial heats by a wider margin than anyone, and he is way off the pace in the Republican primary polling conducted by PPP, as well:

FL-SEN'R. PPP. 5/31-6/3. Florida Republican voters. MoE ±4.6%.

Connie Mack IV: 34
George LeMieux: 13
Mike McCallister: 10
Dave Weldon: 6
"Someone Else": 9
Undecided: 28

Weldon's piss-poor showing demonstrates rather clearly that, in a state with more than two dozen House members, merely being a "former member of Congress" doesn't earn you a heck of a lot of political capital. Eighty-one percent of Floridians have no opinion of the former veteran Space Coast representative, and those who do, lean negative (8/12).

At the moment, Weldon runs behind "someone else" in the primary balloting. Of course, with only a small surge, "someone else" could be in second place in this thing, given how totally undefined the field is behind Mack, who remains an unimpressive frontrunner with weak favorabilities of his own (19/27).

Nelson shouldn't break out champagne yet, however. His job approval remains awfully middling (39/31), and not a single one of his potential GOP rivals is established enough to have even 50 percent of the electorate able to offer an opinion of them. There are still miles to go in this one, although you'd rather be Nelson than the Republicans at this point.