Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: National polls, swing state polls, and a stubborn disconnect

On a day when the polling load was actually (for this late in the cycle) relatively light (just 36 polls in total), we nonetheless see the re-emergence of one of the dominant themes of this election.

If you are a Mitt Romney supporter, you have to feel reasonably good about the data that came out of the national polls today. Averaging today's national data together, Romney established one of his larger average leads of the cycle. What's more, he improved his standing versus President Obama in 4 of 8 polls, while the president improved his relative position in just two of them.

If you are a supporter of the president, however, you have to look to today's state-by-state polling and feel awfully good about your prospects. It is that disconnect between national and state polling that has reared its head on multiple occasions during the election cycle. With just 12 days to go, it still seems to be very much in evidence. Could it mean we are heading to another (historically rare) split between the electoral vote and popular vote in the battle for the White House?

More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47

NATIONAL (AP/GfK): Romney 47, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 44 (RV)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)

NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 47

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ARIZONA (Rasmussen): Romney 52, Obama 44

CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama 53, Romney 41

COLORADO (Grove Insight for Project New America--D): Obama 46, Romney 43

COLORADO (Keating Research): Obama 48, Romney 45

COLORADO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)

COLORADO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

FLORIDA (Gravis--R): Romney 50, Obama 49

FLORIDA (Grove Insight for Project New America and USAction--D): Obama 47, Romney 45

IOWA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 49, Romney 47

MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Obama 47, Romney 47

NEVADA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 45 (RV)

NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama 48, Romney 48

PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 46

VIRGINIA (Fox News): Romney 47, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 46, Obama 45 (RV)

VIRGINIA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 46

VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 48

WISCONSIN (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 45

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

AZ-SEN (Rasmussen): Jeff Flake (R) 50, Richard Carmona (D) 44

CA-SEN (USC/Los Angeles Times): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 38 (corrected from Weds)

CT-SEN (Gotham Research Group for the Murphy campaign): Chris Murphy (D) 47, Linda McMahon (R) 41

NV-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45 (LV); Heller 46, Berkley 46 (RV)

NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 50, Shelley Berkley (D) 45

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IN-GOV (Benenson Strategy Group for the Gregg campaign): Mike Pence (R) 46, John Gregg (D) 40, Rupert Boneham (L) 6

NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5

ND-GOV (Essman/Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 59, Ryan Taylor (D) 28

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CT-05 (Garin-Hart-Yang for the Esty campaign): Elizabeth Esty (D) 46, Andrew Roraback (R) 42

MI-11 (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Kerry Bentvolio (R) 47, Syed Taj (D) 39

NV-03 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Joe Heck (R) 50, John Oceguera (D) 40C

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...