Florida: the most polled state in the 2012 cycle If you are a reader of our Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap, you already know that a common theme recently has been a marked divide between national polling on the presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, and the state-by-state analysis of the race. Today we look at the state polling in a slightly different way, in order to see how Mitt Romney can assemble a coalition to get to 270 electoral votes. This week, I counted up every state-by-state poll that has crossed my eyes during the entirety of the 2011-2012 campaign cycle. For those scoring at home, that adds up to 487 polls in all except seven of the 51 locales where the race for the White House will play out.
(Trivia question for the true junkies, with the answer below the fold: Name as many of the seven locales that have not seen a single presidential poll to-date. The fact I used the word "locales" instead of "states" should give you a hint!)
Then, a very simple metric was used: In what percentage of the polls conducted in a state did Barack Obama have a lead? In what percentage of the polls conducted in a state did Mitt Romney have a lead? How often did they tie? Those states where Barack Obama led a plurality of the polls went into his column, and the same for Romney. Furthermore, to get a feel for the "true base" for each candidate, a separate calculation was made of the states where one candidate led in every single poll conducted in a state.
The bottom line: No matter how the analysis is conducted, it still remains easier for Barack Obama to cobble together that collection of states to make it to the magic number.
For the details, head below the fold to check out the analysis ... and the answer to our trivia question!
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