Saturday, July 14, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Trackers diverge yet again on a light polling day

If Wednesday was the absolute deluge of polling data, today's load must resemble a mild passing shower. Midweek brought almost 30 different polls to peruse, while today sits at ... four.

Normally, you can draw a conclusion (however incomplete) from a day with little polling. After all, if only 1-2 polls are in front of you, the odds of them contradicting each other is pretty minimal.

But when two of those polls are the daily trackers from Gallup and the House of Ras, the odds of contradiction escalate dramatically. President Obama is either surging, or he's slumping. Such are the verdicts of the two daily trackers, with Rasmussen painting a better picture for the Democrats than Gallup for the first time in weeks.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (46-45)

NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (51-36)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Mason Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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