12 for '12: A dozen great upsets (or near upsets) from the past two decades of American politics

Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH), upset winner
over Rep. Jeb Bradley in 2006. Given the fact that we were just graced with a holiday that fell precisely at midweek, topical electoral horse-race and/or polling news was a little hard to come by this week. By any objective measurement, there was less polling conducted this week than at any point in this cycle, dating back to before the Republican presidential primaries.

With that in mind, tonight just seemed to be the right time to engage in a little political nostalgia (and, hopefully, some lively debate in the comments) as we look at some of the greatest electoral upsets of the past 20 years in American congressional and gubernatorial politics.

The initial list that was concocted for this fun little exercise had well over two dozen races. As it happened, however, so many of them fell into two particular categories that I felt the need to limit races that emanated from those categories. So, in the name of spreading the wealth, the decision was made to minimize entries from the following two scenarios:

Category One: Special Elections

The unique dynamics of special elections, to say nothing of the vagaries in turnout, make them a breeding ground for shocking outcomes. I could have easily put the victories by Travis Childers (MS-01; 2008) and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-AL; 2004) on this list, as well as Bill Redmond's shocker in the bluest district in New Mexico (NM-03; 1997) in the top 12. On further reflection, it would have been pretty easy to do a "special elections upset" top 12.

Category Two: Tsunami Elections

Wave elections have a tendency to bring in a lot of driftwood, and therefore upsets are a staple of every wave election. There is absolutely no question that some of the entries on this list of upsets were less shocking than some of the elections that accompanied huge electoral waves. I have no doubt some loyal readers will be aghast that names like Blake "Ducky PJs" Farenthold (TX-27; 2010), Steve Stockman (TX-09; 1994), Nancy Boyda (KS-02; 2006), David Loebsack (IA-02; 2006) and Chip Cravaack (MN-08; 2010) didn't make the cut.

So, with those two caveats out of the way, let's get to the countdown. And, then, let the recriminations fly in the comments, as people will doubtlessly quibble with inclusions, exclusions, and placement. Hell, that's half the fun of this little mid-summer exercise!

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