The year we finally beat NOM at the ballot box

It's making a real difference. (Jonathan Alcorn/Reuters) The National Organization for (some) Marriage(s) has had a charmed existence at the ballot box, winning all of its anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives. Indeed, they recently won an easy victory in North Carolina, rounding out Southern states with gay hate laws on the books or in their Constitutions.

But the low-hanging fruit is all gone, while changing demographics (and the death of statistically more bigoted older voters) are making those contests closer and closer.

That combination means that this year, we are on track to deliver NOM their first big ballot initiative loss, and their second, and maybe even their third and fourth.

WASHINGTON

A new statewide survey by Public Policy Polling indicates that Washington may become the first state in America to approve same-sex marriage, a cause that has gone 0-for-32 in previous statewide votes.

The survey by PPP found marriage equality with a 51-42 percent lead:  In polling on statewide initiatives and referendums, 50 percent support is considered a significant bellwether.

Marriage equality always polls better than it performs at the ballot box. The reasons are likely several'poll respondents are less likely to tell pollsters that they're bigots (though that phenomenon is reduced with robo-polling like PPP, because computers aren't judgmental); equality supporters are more likely to be young (who don't vote in large numbers) while opponents are more likely to be old (who vote in large numbers); and many groups who are under-polled (ethnic and racial minorities) have also ended up voting against equality.

But a 9-point lead in Washington for equality is significant. Unless opponents can close that polling gap, there won't be enough of a "Bradley Effect" to save the haters.

MAINE

In 2009, Maine's legislature passed marriage equality. The haters, backed by the Catholic Church, put the kibosh on it at the ballot box that November by a 53-47 margin at a time of depressed Democratic participation. Maine's 2012 electorate will be much different, while those changing demographics have continued to change the last three years. As a result?

Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedomby ensuring no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of theirreligious beliefs?

Yes 55
No 36

This poll was conducted using live callers, so the results could be overly optimistic. But man, the polling never looked this good in 2009. In fact, PPP had the initiative losing 51-47 in its polling that year (pretty much nailing the outcome). The latest PPP numbers? 54-41 in FAVOR of equality.

Whether a 13-point or a 19-point advantage, Maine appears ready to rectify its big wrong from 2009.

Oh, and the Catholic Church won't be funding the haters this time around. (Though they'll be preaching their bigotry to their parishioners, so don't clap too loud.)

MARYLAND

Once upon a time, the haters used to complain that equality supporters were "ramming" gay marriage down the throats of people via the courts. Why couldn't they go through legislatures? Then, equality supporters began legalizing gay marriage via legislatures (see Maine, above), and they didn't like that either.

Add Maryland to the list. The legislature and governor signed marriage equality into law earlier this year, and the haters quickly put the issue on the ballot. Supporters opted not to challenge the signatures and have geared up for battle this November. It looks like a smart move'having the people of the state ratify the legislature's decision, because the polling looks good.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland [released May 24] finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama's historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin. Here are some key findings:

-57% of Maryland voters say they're likely to vote for the new marriage law this fall,
compared to only 37% who are opposed. That 20 point margin of passage represents a 12
point shift from an identical PPP survey in early March, which found it ahead by a closer
52/44 margin.

-The movement over the last two months can be explained almost entirely by a major
shift in opinion about same-sex marriage among black voters. Previously 56% said they
would vote against the new law with only 39% planning to uphold it. Those numbers
have now almost completely flipped, with 55% of African Americans planning to vote
for the law and only 36% now opposed.

MINNESOTA

Minnesota doesn't allow gay marriage, or civil unions for that matter. However, the haters know shitty demographics (for them) when they see them, and are trying to codify their hate laws in as many books before our increasingly tolerant society drowns them out. So they're trying to do in Minnesota what they did in over 30 states and pass an anti-gay marriage Constitutional amendment via ballot initiative.

Of the four big equality battles this November, this is the tightest one (by far).

Minnesota's constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage now appears to be in serious danger of failing, a reversal from a PPP poll four months ago when it led for passage by a 48/44 margin.

Now only 43% of voters support the proposed amendment, with 49% of voters opposed to it. The shift since then has come with independent voters. After previously supporting the amendment by a 50/40 spread, they're now opposing it 54/37. Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment (74/21) while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition (71/22).

The narrow lead for the good guys shouldn't make us feel too good. As noted above, we must always assume we'll perform crappier at the ballot box than with polling. Also, as noted above, the age split works against us given who is most likely to vote:

Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that we've found in other states. Voters over 45 support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater 60/34 margin.

If those under 45 voted at the same levels as those over 45, it would be no contest. But they don't. Still, polling looked crappy in Minnesota last year and earlier in this one. Public opinion is moving the right direction, no doubt assisted by Obama's changing position on the matter. Thus, the trends look good, and what once seemed like another disheartening loss is now very much a winnable race.

I'm looking forward to ending NOM's winning streak, and doing so with an emphatic bang. 4-0? With three of these affirming or establishing equality?

My only regret is that California isn't on this list.

P.S. Call it "marriage liberty" on Twitter, and watch the wingnuts froth at the mouth.