New PPP poll of Arizona special election shows Democrat Ron Barber up 12 points

Ron Barber Public Policy Polling (PDF). 6/9-10. Likely voters. MoE: ±3.0% (no trendlines):

Ron Barber (D): 53
Jesse Kelly (R): 41
Charlie Manolakis (G): 4
Undecided: 3

Tomorrow is the special election to replace ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords, who resigned from Congress in January to focus on recovering from the injuries she suffered during the shocking Tucson shooting last year. Conventional wisdom on the race to succeed her has suggested a very close contest: Neither side has released any polling, both camps have spent heavily, and both candidates have tended to act cautiously, lest they offend the small group of persuadable voters occupying the political middle in this swing district.

But PPP's survey upends that CW, showing Barber, a former Giffords aide, crushing Kelly, the 2010 GOP nominee who nearly beat Barber's old boss, by double digits'and that's even with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis (whom you'd expect to pull from left-leaning voters) drawing four percent of the vote. The favorability numbers tell the tale here: Barber, perhaps still drawing on residual goodwill toward Giffords, stands at 54-38 approvals, while Kelly, who's been hammered over his stated desire to end Medicare and Social Security, is at a miserable 37-59.

There's another, more fundamental reason for Barber's lead, though: PPP's respondents lean heavily Democratic, something pollster Tom Jensen acknowledges. Respondents say they voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by a 50-44 margin; in reality, the vote went the other way, 52-46 for McCain. That's a 12-point shift, which either suggests a massive Democratic enthusiasm gap or a wonky sample. The former is definitely possible: Jensen points to last year's NY-26 special election, where PPP correctly called (PDF) the final margin while finding an electorate that was 11 points more pro-Obama than the 2008 results.

But so is the latter. Roll Call's Abby Livingston tweets:

Re: the PPP poll on #AZ08 source: "It does not match Democrats' private polling which has the race considerably closer."
' @RollCallAbby via web But if PPP is right, then Kelly's already in a very deep hole. Over half (57%) of the sample says they've already voted via early voting, and that cohort went for Barber by a 58-37 margin. We'll just have to see tomorrow.