Saturday, June 23, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Should you care more about national polls, or state polls?

Earlier in the week, a minor skirmish popped up in the Wrap comments on the subject of why anyone should care about national polls, when presidents are elected via the electoral college. State polls, the community member insisted, are the only thing that matter.

Well, yes...and no. It might not be the most definitive answer I've ever given on the Wrap, but it is the right one.

More on that in a bit. First, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (46-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-43)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MI-03'D (Mellman Group for Thomas): Steven Pestka 21, Trevor Thomas 16

NH-GOV (Rasmussen): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 41, Jackie Cilley (D) 39; Lamontagne 42, Maggie Hassan (D) 36; Cilley 39, Kevin Smith (R) 37; Smith 39, Hassan 36

UT-SEN'R (BYU/Key Research): Sen. Orrin Hatch 56, Dan Liljenquist 25

WA-GOV (GS Strategy): Jay Inslee (D) 38, Rob McKenna (R) 38

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...


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