Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Is Barack Obama really beating Mitt Romney by 13 points?

Short answer: almost certainly not.

It is one of the oldest maxims in following the polls, and it applies for polls you like every bit as much as poll you don't like: when a poll is released that is markedly different than everyone else, it is pretty unlikely that everyone else is wrong.

If I have one beef with the universal declaration of today's Bloomberg Poll as an outlier, it is that I rarely hear the same conclusion drawn about a certain polling outfit's daily presidential tracking poll, though it, too, has been close to double digits away from the critical polling mass from time to time.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)

NATIONAL (Selzer for Bloomberg Media): Obama d. Romney (53-40)

NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama tied with Romney (44-44)

IOWA (We Ask America'R): Obama d. Romney (45-44)

MICHIGAN (We Ask America'R): Romney d. Obama (45-43)

MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (51-42)

NEBRASKA (Garin-Hart-Yang for Project New America): Romney d. Obama (52-40)

WASHINGTON (PPP): Obama d. Romney (54-41)

WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (49-43)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:

(2014) CO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 47, Bill Owens (R) 43; Udall 48, Mike Coffman (R) 39; Udall 48, Jane Norton (R) 38; Udall 48, John Suthers (R) 38; Udall 49, Tom Tancredo 39; Udall 49, Doug Lamborn (R) 36, Udall 50, Ken Buck (R) 35

NE-SEN (Garin-Hart-Yang for Project New America): Deb Fischer (R) 52, Bob Kerrey (D) 38

PA-12 (Global Strategy Group for Critz): Rep. Mark Critz (D) 46, Keith Rothfus (R) 36

WA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 36

WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson (R) 49, Tammy Baldwin (D) 41; Baldwin 44, Mark Neumann (R) 44; Baldwin 45, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 39; Baldwin 45, Eric Hovde (R) 36

WI-SEN'R (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson 34, Mark Neumann 16, Eric Hovde 14, Jeff Fitzgerald 10

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...