Today's data, on the surface, seems to have some very clear conclusions that can be drawn. However, with a little digging, it is a day of "buts". Example #1: PPP's daily tracking poll moved two points in the direction of President Obama.
BUT Tom Jensen of PPP made clear that Tuesday's sample was deadlocked, and the movement was solely attributed to a good Romney night on Saturday falling off of the tracker.
Example #2: Rasmussen claims that, post-debate, the race in Ohio has moved from a slight Obama lead to a (gasp!) tie.
BUT a quick dive into the crosstabs shows Obama leading with Ohio Independent voters, and garnering more support from Democrats than Romney is from Republicans.
The net result? We don't know a hell of a lot more on Wednesday than we did on Tuesday, despite a pretty sizable polling load of 59 separate polls.
On balance, the coin flip narrative seems to be persisting, though there were some small signs that should give Democrats a slight tinge of optimism.
More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 48DOWNBALLOT POLLING:NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)
NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 44
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
NATIONAL (Pharos Research): Obama 50, Romney 47
NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 48
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 46
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 49, Romney 47
ARKANSAS (Univ. of Arkansas): Romney 53, Obama 34
CONNECTICUT (Mason-Dixon): Obama 49, Romney 42
CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac): Obama 55, Romney 41
FLORIDA (Pharos Research): Obama 47, Romney 47
INDIANA (Pharos Research): Romney 51, Obama 38
MASSACHUSETTS (WBUR/MassINC): Obama 56, Romney 36
MONTANA (Pharos Research): Romney 47, Obama 41
NEBRASKA (Pharos Research): Romney 51, Obama 41
NEVADA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47
NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 48
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lake Research For USAction--D): Obama 48, Romney 45
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 48
NEW YORK (NY1/Marist): Obama 61, Romney 35
NORTH DAKOTA (Pharos Research): Romney 49, Obama 39
OHIO (Lake Research--D): Obama 46, Romney 44
OHIO (Pharos Research): Obama 50, Romney 45
OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama 48, Romney 48
OHIO (SRBI for Time Magazine): Obama 49, Romney 44
OHIO (SurveyUSA): Obama 47, Romney 44
PENNSYLVANIA (Pharos Research): Obama 49, Romney 46
VIRGINIA (Old Dominion University): Obama 50, Romney 43
WISCONSIN (Mason Dixon): Obama 48, Romney 46
CA-SEN (USC/Los Angeles Times): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 53, Elizabeth Emken (R) 38A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...CT-SEN (Mason-Dixon): Linda McMahon (R) 44, Chris Murphy (D) 44
CT-SEN (Quinnipiac): Chris Murphy (D) 49, Linda McMahon (R) 43
FL-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 52, Connie Mack IV (R) 44
IN-SEN (Pharos Research): Richard Mourdock (R) 46, Joe Donnelly (D) 46
MA-SEN (WBUR/MassINC): Elizabeth Warren (D) 50, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 44
MT-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 46
NE-SEN (Pharos Research): Deb Fischer (R) 48, Bob Kerrey (D)
4546NV-SEN (PPP): Shelley Berkley (D) 44, Sen. Dean Heller (R) 44, David VanderBeek (IAP) 7
NY-SEN (NY1/Marist): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 68, Wendy Long (R) 24
ND-SEN (Pharos Research): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 49, Rick Berg (R) 48
OH-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 52, Josh Mandel (R) 41
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 44
OH-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 43, Josh Mandel (R) 42
PA-SEN (Pharos Research): Sen. Bob Casey (D)
4252, Tom Smith (R) 42PA-SEN (Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 45, Tom Smith (R) 44
VA-SEN (Old Dominion University): Tim Kaine (D) 50, George Allen (R) 43
WI-SEN (Mason Dixon): Tammy Baldwin (D) 47, Tommy Thompson (R) 45
MT-GOV (Pharos Research): Steve Bullock (D) 47, Rick Hill (R) 45
ND-GOV (Pharos Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 63, Ryan Taylor (D) 32
ND-GOV (Rasmussen): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 53, Ryan Taylor (D) 39
WA-GOV (Elway Research): Rob McKenna (R) 47, Jay Inslee (D) 45
CT-05 (National Research for the Roraback campaign): Andrew Roraback (R) 45, Elizabeth Esty (D) 39
FL-18 (Frederick Polls for the Murphy campaign): Patrick Murphy (D) 47, Rep. Allen West (R) 47
MT-AL (Pharos Research): Steve Daines (R) 47, Kim Gillan (D) 41
NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 41, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 38, Brendan Kelly (L) 4
NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Anne McLane Kuster (D) 39, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 36, Hardy Macia (L) 3
ND-AL (Essman/Research): Kevin Cramer (R) 52, Pam Gulleson (D) 32
ND-AL (Pharos Research): Kevin Cramer (R) 54, Pam Gulleson (D) 42
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