Why it matters: Romney can't win without Florida

We can't take a chance of this happening again. (2000 GOP Brooks Brothers riot during presidential recount) Yesterday, Daily Kos reported that, according to reliable sources, Al Lorenzo, a crony of Republican Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, was going to be hired to conduct the Miami-Dade Democratic Party absentee balloting program. Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman Richard Lydecker categorically denied the charge.

Why would this story matter? I can point to the photo above for that answer. But I can also point to, believe it or not, one Dick "Toesucker" Morris, whose preposterous prediction of a Hillary versus Condi presidential race (preposterous in the idea that Rice could ever be the GOP nominee) is now rivalled in absurdity by his new prediction of a Mitt Romney landslide. Of course, Romney cannot win a landslide, but he can still win'but to do so he must win Florida. Right now, Nate Silver gives President Obama a 56 percent chance of winning the state again this year.

A Republican has not won the presidency without winning Florida since Calvin Coolidge. Yes, Democrats generally'and President Obama specifically'can win without Florida. But Republicans generally and Romney specifically simply cannot. Think of Florida as the closer: If on election night Florida is called for President Obama, the election is over (as it should have been in 2000).

In 2008, President Obama won Florida by 185,000 votes. And he won Miami-Dade by 140,000 votes (of 800,000 total votes cast in Florida's most populous county). Without a big win in Miami-Dade County, and the rest of South Florida, Barack Obama would not have won Florida. This is true for 2012 as well.

Because Florida, and especially Miami-Dade County, can be this decisive, then great care must be taken to ensure that every resource is used as effectively as possible by the Democratic Party there. Hiring GOP Rubio crony Al Lorenzo would be indefensible as a political move. Morally and, perhaps, legally, the move would also be indefensible.

Did the Miami-Dade Democratic Party plan to hire Al Lorenzo? Our sources say they did. The chair says they did not. Frankly, I believe our sources. But the important thing is they won't be hiring him now. That's what matters in this critical election year.