Pew: Obama lead persists, now ahead 51-41

Think this is a tie race, a dead heat as the media would have you believe? Not so, says Nate Silver.

Barack Obama's standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.

Think the Bain attacks aren't working? Check this out from the Quinnipiac/NY Times/CBS poll that has Obama above 50 percent in FL, OH and PA:

From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business experience too focused on making profits?

LIKELY VOTERS...
                             FL     OH     PA

Right experience     42%  41%  42%
Focused on profits   48     50     51
DK/NA                    10       9      8

So how's the conversation going about the two candidates, especially after Romney's Euro fiasco? This just in from National Journal:

Add to Mitt Romney's bad polling week with this from Pew:

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.

Obama's favorability and Romney's unfavorability are a big part of the picture. In fact, Romney's unfavorability is historic:
Pew has been favorable to Obama this cycle. But there's a major reason why Obama is ahead in this poll and other recent polls: Romney is really disliked (and thanks to his foreign affairs trip, not just here). While the trackers (Rasmussen and Gallup) the pundits and the economic models still predict a close race (and they are probably right about that), as of this moment it is anything but a tie.

And while predictions in a close race are sketchy, Romney's unlikeability is not going to suddenly change.

So when you hear the pundits talk about a tie race, or a dead heat, don't you believe it. Romney is behind by some amount in the polls, Nate's got Obama at a 70 percent chance of winning and Intrade has Obama in the high 50s (58 today). And whether it's because they are underpolling minorities or cell phones or some other methodological reason, the trackers appear to be off track.