Saturday, July 21, 2012

Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Does the GOP have some legit pickup opportunities in California?

On a day when politics, to say nothing of perusing election polling, has been rightly relegated to the back page, there are nevertheless a handful of polls which crossed our eyes today. A sharp movement in the Gallup tracker, a lesser movement from the House of Ras, and some predictable statewide polling marks the day.

But the one polling headline that might be worth remembering next week is a pair of GOP internal polls that hint that California may not be the treasure trove of pickups for the Democrats that everyone thinks. The reason: Two nominally Democratic seats may be more competitive than we thought.

On to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-44)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-46)

CALIFORNIA (Pepperdine Univ. School of Public Policy for the California Business Round Table): Obama d. Romney (52-33)

FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (48-43)

NORTH CAROLINA (National Research for Civitas Institute'R): Romney d. Obama (49-48)

PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (48-44)

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-SEN (Pepperdine Univ. School of Public Policy for the California Business Round Table): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 49, Elizabeth Emken (R) 30

CA-24 (Public Opinion Strategies for Maldonado): Rep. Lois Capps (D) 48, Abel Maldonado (R) 46

CA-47 (Probolsky Research for DeLong): Alan Lowenthal (D) 44, Gary DeLong (R) 41

FL-SEN (SurveyUSA): Connie Mack IV (R) 48, Bill Nelson (D) 42

OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 46, Josh Mandel (R) 42

WA-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 40

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...


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